Trying to bring a little common sense to the game of baseball. But considering many of the people who read baseball blogs, I'm probably just pissing into the wind.

Tuesday, March 29, 2011

The Colorado Rockies preview


Could be the team to beat if it all comes together, or could finish well below .500. No one knows what is happening in this division, so trying to predict anything is silly. They’ll hit, because they always do. They have some good pitchers, and it’s a young team with some good speed. I think they’re the team to beat, and should win the division in a close race.


Catcher:

Chris Iannetta. The team can’t really figure out what they want from him. He starts, he doesn’t start; he has the job, doesn’t have the job. He can hit for power, at least in Coors, and he has a good on base percentage. His defense isn’t good, but he can play a lot of games and is young. Given a chance to play full time, he can be productive. For some reason, he’s not getting the chance.

Upside:  puts up the same numbers he did last time he was the starter

Downside:  already has the reputation of a back up

Score:  0


First base:

Todd Helton. The grand old man of the team, and the face of the franchise, but he doesn’t really have it any longer. Injuries have taken all of his power, and he hit a career low last year in everything. He can still draw a walk, but doesn’t get around the bases. His defense is good, but a slow start is going to get him on the bench. The only question will be whether or not he retires or accepts a trade to another team.

Upside:  one last year

Downside:  lack of production becomes a distraction

Score:  - 1


Second base:

Jose Lopez. A guy with a reputation for a hitter who really isn’t a hitter. He has some power and that might translate well to Coors, as long as he does hit. If he gets back his ability to hit for average, that will help also, as he doesn’t like to take a walk. He doesn’t run at all, so he needs to hit. He does play good defense, and that might be a strength on the team.

Upside:  gets his power back in Coors

Downside:  can’t hit enough to make a difference

Score:  + 1


Third base:

Ian Stewart. A big guy who doesn’t hit for enough power in the ballpark. He doesn’t have much extra base power and doesn’t run well either. His defense is below average, so you have to wonder how he is the best option for the team. He’s young and can still develop n the future. Not much plate discipline either, so he might not make it the entire season here.

Upside:  finds a power stroke

Downside:  becomes too important for the offense

Score:  - 1


Short stop:

Troy Tulowitzki. The new star of the team, and a good one. He’s doing it all and can hit outside of Coors. Found his power stroke, but could use more extra base hits. Runs well, but not often. Hits for average and can walk, and doesn’t shrike out too much. His defense is good, so he has added value to the team. Just hitting his prime, and he should get even better.

Upside:  rises to the superstar level

Downside:  this is his top level

Score:  + 2


Left field:

Carlos Gonzales. The best player on the team last year, people keep trying to find fault with his performance, but at the age of 25, I’m not sure why. He hit for power, average, walks, runs, and can do everything that is needed at the plate. He might be a product of Coors, but he plays half of his games there, so who cares. He’s good defensively as long as they leave him alone.

Upside:  the new Larry Walker

Downside:   a one hit wonder

Score:   + 2


Centerfield:

Dexter Fowler. A good young switch-hitter who can hit for extra bases and run at will. The big knock is his lack of power, but not everyone hits homeruns. He gets on base, moves around them, and is the set up guy. He strikes out more than you want him to, but that isn’t an issue with the way the game is played today. He’s good defensively, and will anchor what will be the best defense in the league.

Upside:  starts using his speed better than now

Downside:  listens to those who say he should hit homeruns

Score:  + 1


Right field:

Seth Smith. A left handed platoon player who basically league average, he’s doing just enough to justify staying out there. He’ll spend a lot of time on the bench against left handers. Has the ability to draw a walk and doesn’t strike out very much. He has medium power, but doesn’t run well at all. He can play defense, just like everyone else, so he’ll help even if he doesn’t hit well.

Upside:  gets back to his 2009 numbers

Downside:  doesn’t hit well enough to stay in a platoon

Score:  0


Pinch hitter/general utility:

Ty Wigginton. A former starter who will be filling a back up role here, he’ll still get a lot of playing time at third and right field. Good power which could increase quite a bit in Coors. He’s not good defensively, but he is versatile at all corner positions. A guy like this is a valuable addition to a team like the Rockies, and he’ll enjoy being on a winning team.

Upside:  wants to make the playoffs

Downside:  can’t fill in all the places he’s needed

Score:  + 1


Backup catcher:

Jose Morales. A switch hitter who did well filling in for Joe Mauer might find his way in Coors. He hit for average and got on base a lot. He doesn’t run and doesn’t have any power, but doesn’t strike out very much. Defensively neutral, he’ll get plenty of playing time, and a shot to show what he can do. If he hits, it could end up in a platoon with Iannetta.

Upside:  hits like he did in Minnesota

Downside:  it was an aberration

Score:  0


Backup first baseman:

No one, unless Jason Giambi gets a roster spot, but that wouldn’t make much sense. All the starters figure to be full time starters, except for Smith, and that would be a straight platoon. Because of the nature of Coors, they’ll probably go a roster player short to carry an extra pitcher. The offense should be good, so pinch hitting situations should be reduced.

Upside:  anyone can fill the position

Downside:  comes back to haunt them when they need it most

Score:   - 2


Back-up infielder:

Jonathon Herrera. A switch hitting infielder who can play all of the positions. He doesn’t have any power, but he has a good on base percentage He doesn’t run, and has no extra base power. If he had to start somewhere besides short stop, he shouldn’t hurt the team, and might end up in some kind of platoon with Stewart. You don’t want him in there long term, but he’s okay.

Upside:  shouldn’t have much to do

Downside:  has to fill in for Tulowitzki

Score:  0


Back-up outfielder:

Ryan Spillborghs. The other side of the right field platoon; he can hit for average, and walks enough to be productive. He has no power and doesn’t get extra base hits or run at all. He’s striking out too much for the lack of power. His defense isn’t very good, but he’ll get time pinch hitting and filling in around the outfield. There is enough around him that he can be successful doing what he does every year.

Upside:  has an average year

Downside:  ends up staring somewhere in the outfield

Score:  0


Rotation (front 3):

Ubaldo Jimenez, Jorge de la Rosa, and Jason Hammal. A Cy Young candidate and two other good starters if they are healthy. The back two need to pitch more innings and god deeper into the game. Good strike out rates, which will help in the ballpark. They allow a few too many runners, but that’s the hits more than the walks. They team will score with no problem, but the team success will depend on the pitching.

Upside:  they all pitch a full year

Downside:  injuries break down the staff

Score:  + 1


Rotation (back end):

Jhoulys Chacin and Esmil Rogers. Another good starter on the way up, and middle guy trying to break into the rotation. Chacin is a flame thrower who goes deep into the game. He’s young and has a good future. Rogers can strike out a bunch also, so he’ll be an asset as well. If these guys stay healthy and pitch as well as last year, the starting rotation is going to be good.

Upside: room to get better and they will

Downside:  Chacin comes back to Earth

Score:  0


Bullpen:

Matt Belisle, Rafael Betancourt, Matt Lindstrom, Franklin Morales, and Matt Reynolds. A good bunch of relievers who can strike out a lot of batters, and in Coors, that’s a good thing to do. Too many of them pitch less than an inning an outing, and that could be a problem. The starters will have to go deep for this to work. They will obviously carry more responsibility than these guys, but these are the horses.

Upside: the starters average 7 innings a game

Downside:  they don’t make it to the sixth

Score:  + 1


Closer:

Huston Street. An experienced close, he also has a history of injury problems and is hurt right now. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the better ones in the game, and still strikes out a lot of batters. The team is going to contend and Street has to be a big part of it. They do have some other guys who can do it if he can’t, but its going to hurt the bullpen.

Upside:  is healthy enough to help the team

Downside:  injuries do him in

Score:   + 1


Team speed (which includes base running):

Good, but not great. They steal bases at a pretty good clip, but could get more if everyone runs. They hit a lot of triples, but that’s park effect more than a speed issue. The outfield can run, and so can Tulowitzki. The speed will help out in the outfield, and they don’t have to rely on the homerun away from home. This is a positive for the team and more of it would be good to see.

Upside:  everyone gets the green light

Downside:  relies too much on the homerun

Score:  + 1


Team defense:

Excellent. They’re good at six out of eight positions, and have back ups who can play defense at those position. The outfield is going to be good, and that will help with the big area out there to cover. The team will always give up a lot of runs, so the more they can prevent, the better. This will be the best defense in the league, but no one will know it because of the amount of runs scored per game.

Upside:  will make a good pitching staff even better

Downside:  everyone wants to carry a bat more than a glove

Score:  + 2


Team batting:

It’s good, but how good? Are these guys really hitters, or is it all park effects? The biggest thing is whether or not they can hit away from home or not. Unless they just go crazy at home and win 55 games, and only have to be .500 on the road. They’ll hit a lot of homeruns, and they walk a lot, but they also strike out way too much. They are better than feast or famine.

Upside:  can hit on the road

Downside:  there’s no place like home

Score:  1


Team pitching:

Good, and should be a strength for the team. If everyone is healthy and can get a full year in, the team is looking at 90 wins. The starters are the key, as the bullpen doesn’t really go for a lot of innings. They will pitch a lot of games, but a few batters at a time. Street’s ability to stay healthy, or his inability to do so, will be a big factor, as there will be a lot of save opportunities. If you believe in them.

Upside:  starters pitch a lot of innings

Downside:  bullpen has to pitch too many

Score:  + 1



Total score:    + 11

The Arizona Diamondbacks preview

It’s a wide open division, and anyone can win it. Someone has to. The Diamondbacks are on the rise, but still have a long way to go. This won’t be the year. They have some power, but no hitting, and no pitching at all. It will be a long summer, but they could actually surprise and get close to .500 in the division, since none of the other teams are going to do anything overwhelming.


Catcher:

Miguel Montero. A decent young catcher, he’ll be good for the team, but he won’t be a star. He can hit for power, and hit doubles. He’ll walk at league average, and doesn’t strike out too much. His defense isn’t good, and could use some work. As a left handed hitter, he’ll sit out against a lot of lefties, and will probably be in platoon situation most of the time.

Upside:  could hit a lot of homeruns with more playing time

Downside:  will have to give a lot of time to the backup

Score:  - 1


First base:

Juan Miranda. A minor leaguer coming from the Yankees, the depth chart has him as the starter. Why not, because there is no one else there. He should have some power, and that will fit will in the park. He’ll strike out too much, but should walk some also. His defense is good, and that will help the team. He’ll help the team get respectable, but is a little old to be here for the long haul.

Upside:  Rookie of the Year

Downside:  Balboni was supposed to be a big hitter also

Score:  - 1


Second base:

Kelly Johnson. A break out season, or it was just the park? Career highs in almost everything. Hit a lot of homeruns and doubles, walked a lot and got on base. Struck out a lot, but did run a bit. His defense is good, and that’s one of the good traits of the team. Another year like last season’s will get him traded at mid-season, but that’s what this team needs to do.

Upside:  can bring some quality prospects

Downside:  can’t repeat the year

Score:  + 1


Third base:

Melvin Mora. An odd pick up for this team. They’re falling into the Royals way of doing things, and old guys aren’t the way to get better. He’s getting old and he’s on the downslide. He had a decent on base percentage, but has no more power, and doesn’t hit for average. His defense left him last season also, and he will probably end up in a platoon, or on the bench before long.

Upside:  can be replaced at any time

Downside:  won’t be

Score:  - 1


Short stop:

Stephen Drew. The star of the team, and he won’t be there for long. Free agency is looming. He had a good all around year, with double figures in doubles, triples, homeruns and steals. He had a career high in walks and on base percentage, and didn’t strike out too much. His defense is a drawback, but his hitting should overcome it. He’s been up and down and needs to break the trend.

Upside:  bucks the trend of up and down

Downside:  has a down year

Score:  + 1


Left field:

Xavier Nady. Starting to have a good career until he got hurt. He still has a way to go, but this is a good team for him to do it with. There are no expectations and he might be able to get on track in the ballpark. He’s also a much needed right handed bat on the team. His defense is nothing to get excited about, but if he can play a full season, he’ll be big help to the team until they rebuild.

Upside:  can use the park to have a comeback year

Downside:   hits like a typical Diamondback

Score:   - 1


Centerfield:

Chris Young. His best year so far, and he’s looking to be a star. Still struck out a lot, but had a career high in walks and on base percentage. Hit for power and lots of doubles, and runs well. His defense is getting better every year and he’s headed for a break out year. He’s looking at a big payday when it happens. He’s headed for an Andruw Jones type career.

Upside:  30/30

Downside:  Andruw Jones with the Dodgers

Score:  + 1


Right field:

Justin Upton. Headed for stardom. He’s getting better each year. He’s doing a little of everything. He had a down year, but it wasn’t bad. He can still draw a walk and he has decent power. He runs well, his defense is excellent. He still misses too many gleams, and a full season will get him some good numbers. His strikeouts are a problem, but he’s young, and he’ll be okay.

Upside:  another 30/30 year

Downside:  this is as good as it gets

Score: + 1


Pinch hitter/general utility:

Russell Branyan. He’ll do what he does every year. Strike out a lot, not walk very much, hit for a low average and have a decent amount of homeruns. He’ll see a lot time, and could end up as a platoon with Mora, although you really don’t want that. If Miranda can’t go at first, he’ll end up there, and will Nady be in the outfield on occasion, but mostly pinch hit.

Upside:  finds a second career as a career pinch hitter

Downside:  has to start at some position

Score:   0


Backup catcher:

Henry Blanco. A typical journeyman back up, who doesn’t hit very much. He’s not really supposed to hit that much as a back up, but he needs to. No power, no walks, and no speed. He’ll end up playing a lot more time since Montero is a left handed hitter. His defense is good, and that will be a benefit to the team, but it comes back to hiding bats for gloves, and this team shouldn’t.

Upside:  Montero plays full time

Downside:  it becomes a platoon

Score:  - 1


Backup first baseman:

Geoff Blum. A long term veteran who never really made it as a starter anywhere. He doesn’t hit for power or average or walk. He doesn’t strike out at a crazy rate, but doesn’t have any speed. He can play a lot of positions, with third and short stop being his best, surprisingly. He’ll move around the field and get into a lot of games doing something. A useful guy for this team.

Upside: versatility helps the team

Downside:  injuries force him into too many games at one position

Score:  0


Back-up infielder:

Tony Abreu. A switchhitting utility infielder, he brings exactly what you expect of him. He’s good defensively at second and third, but not so much at short stop. He shouldn’t need to see much time there, so that’s a benefit. No power, no speed, and not much in the way of offense. He shouldn’t get too much time in the middle, barring injuries, and won’t be the first choice at third.

Upside:  versatility

Downside:  spends too much time playing the middle infield

Score:  - 1


Back-up outfielder:

Gerald Parra. The starter in a left handed platoon last year, he’ll be the fourth outfielder this year. He has really put it together offensively yet. All of his numbers were down from his rookie year, and he doesn’t do any one thing particularly well. The strikeouts are a problem, but that’s a team issue. He plays good defense, but might not get a lot of chances to use if Nady can hit.

Upside:  this might be his strength

Downside:  continues to slide

Score:  - 1


Rotation (front 3):

Ian Kennedy, Joe Saunders, and Daniel Hudson. Hudson had an excellent third of a season, and they have to hope it’s a sign of the future. Kennedy was their best starter last year, and both are young. If they can get it going, things will be good. Saunders had an off year, but he’s a good pitcher and will help eat a lot of innings. He doesn’t strike out enough batters, but is a lefty.

Upside:  Hudson is for the entire year

Downside:  Saunders doesn’t get better again

Score:  + 1


Rotation (back end):

Barry Enright and Aaron Heilmann. Enright had a good half year, but needs to do more. He has to pitch deeper into the game, and needs more strikeouts, or fewer walks. Heilmann will get a chance to start full time after being mostly a reliever. He doesn’t have to do much, just stay healthy and pitch as many innings as possible.

Upside: Enright is for real

Downside:  Heilmann can’t get it done

Score:  0


Bullpen:

David Hernandez, Juan Gutierrez, Sam Demel, Kam Mickolio, and Esmerling Vasquez. A whole lot of nothing. There wasn’t a single quality reliever in this group last year, and a big homerun park isn’t going to help. Whatever the rotation can bring to the team, the bullpen will turn around and take it away. As bad as the offense, is the bullpen is the worst area of the team.

Upside: one of them pitches to league average

Downside:  this is as good as it gets

Score:  - 2


Closer:

J.J. Putz. They have a closer, although I’m not sure why. A former very good closer, he’s three years away from the role. He did have a good year last year and he can still strike them out with the best of them. This is either about the money or a chance to close, as he was better with the White Sox. If they can get him a lead, he’ll get the save. But that’s a big if.

Upside:  is able to close effectively again

Downside:  no one wants to trade for a closer

Score:   + 1


Team speed (which includes base running):

Pretty good. Lots of doubles and triples. They don’t have as many stolen bases as they could, mostly because they sit back and wait on the homerun. How’s that working for you now, Earl Weaver? They have guys who can run, and will; and guys who can run and don’t. Good range in the outfield, but not the infield. If they use the speed, it will help. But they will probably try to hit homeruns.

Upside:  understands what a valuable asset it is

Downside:  play it four bases at a time

Score:  + 1


Team defense:

Good. Overall, but not on the left side, especially the infield. The outfield is very good, and the right side of the infield should help a lot. The pitching staff needs all the help they can get, and this is a good way to do it. They’ll score enough runs, but can they prevent enough? The bad defenders will eventually be pushed out because of their bats, except for Drew.

Upside:  best overall defense in the league

Downside:  bats are more important than gloves

Score:  + 2


Team batting:

Great if you like homeruns. Fantastic if you like strikeouts. The loss of Reynolds won’t really make a difference to either one, as they’ll still do both of them. The overall power is good, as they hit lots of doubles and triples. It’s the walks and the singles (the ones guys have the most) that are harder to come by. It’s a homerun derby until another mindset takes over.

Upside:  will top 200 homeruns

Downside:  lots of K’s in the strikeout column

Score:  0


Team pitching:

Bad. When you finish in the bottom three of almost every category, it’s hard to be optimistic about the future. They have a good closer, but not enough to get him the ball so it will make a difference. They have a front three that can’t pitch every day. They have a non-existent bullpen that could be replaced by the AA team. They are going to hit a lot of homeruns and strikeout a lot on offense. The pitchers can say the same.

Upside:  still some hope for the starters

Downside:  hope isn’t reality

Score:  - 1



Total score:    - 1

Monday, March 28, 2011

The St Louis Cardinals preview


They’ll do what they do every year. Play great, play like crap, lead the division, fall behind, pull away, get caught, and then go into the final series of the year against the Cubs needing to beat them to make the playoffs. They’ve been semi-successful with that plan, so there is no reason to think they’ll change now. One thing I do know is that LaRussa won’t do a retirement tour ala Bobby Cox.


Catcher:

Yadier Molina. He’s not a great hitter, but he’s not terrible, and he’s got the defense. He’s the second best catcher in the league, and deserves the accolades. Sure, no power, but he does get on base well for a defense-first catcher. But he’s not there for his bat, that’s all extra. He’s there for the glove, and he gets it done. He also doesn’t strike out very much and plays a lot of games. What more do you want?

Upside:  develops some more power as he gets older

Downside:  becomes a worse hitter than his brothers

Score:  + 1


First base:

Albert Pujols. It’s kind of hard to say anything here that hasn’t been said 1000 times before. I’ve only given out two ‘3’s during these previews, and he gets the second one. He’s got it all with the bat and the glove, and can run. He’s been under a .400 OBP once in his career, and that was .394. He’s been under 1.000 OPS twice, and one was .997   He’s a stud.

Upside:  the elbow stops bothering him

Downside:  he really is human

Score:  + 3


Second base:

Skip Schumaker. My father loves this guy, but I’m just not sold on him as an everyday second baseman. There’s nothing wrong with. He had a down year at the plate last year, has an above average OBP most years, but absolutely no power and he doesn’t run. His defense isn’t great either, but he’s not there for that. I’m okay with him on the team; I’m just not a fan of him hitting leadoff.

Upside:  becomes Tommy Herr

Downside:  becomes Mike Tyson

Score:  - 1


Third base:

David Freese. A good rookie season was derailed by a busted ankle, but he seems to be healthy so far. He was hitting for average and getting on base, but no power. A few doubles, but you want this guy to hit homeruns with the size he has. His defense was good, and that’s a big help. He’s going to be 28, so this is his shot. He has to be healthy, and he has to hit.

Upside:  the ankles are fine

Downside:  still can’t get any power

Score:  0


Short stop:

Ryan Theriot. I just don’t get this move. I know Brendan Ryan didn’t hit, but he could pick it. Offense isn’t an issue for this team, and the more defense the better. Theriot’s defense is up and down, and his average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage are dropping every year. He can run, which is good, and he’s usually healthy, but he’s not bringing much more than that.

Upside:  defense is good enough the pitching staff doesn’t mind

Downside:  hits second all year with nothing

Score:  - 1


Left field:

Matt Holliday. Proved he could hit away from Coors, and does it quite well. A little bit of everything. Hits for average, gets walks, and has power, as well as getting doubles. He can even run, when needed. His defense has actually gotten better in St Louis, so maybe that’s a ballpark effect. Not sure, but he’s a big help to Pujols, and that’s sorely needed. They’re the big two and they have to hit a lot for this team.

Upside:  gets back the Coors power

Downside:  starts striking out like a power hitter

Score:   + 2


Centerfield:

Colby Rasmus. The next big star in the National League, and he’s getting better. He can do a little of all of it. Good power, which will get better. Really increased his on base percentage last year, but struck out way too much. I would like to see him run more, and his defense was down, but that’s a statistical issue more than a real problem. He’s also left handed and the Cardinals need a bat from his side.

Upside:  stops talking and keeps hitting

Downside:  gets himself traded

Score:  + 1


Right field:

Lance Berkman. A reclamation project, which I don’t get. It’s a nice gamble, but for left field, not right. He’s a good athlete, but I’m not sure he can do it. He’ll probably end up in a semi-platoon, unless he starts hitting like Albert. He’s only two seasons removed from one of his best, and the year after that was good. But last year was not, and he’s not that good on defense. I hope he can.

Upside:  surprises everyone with his ability to play right field

Downside:  no one is surprised by his ability to play right field

Score: 0


Pinch hitter/general utility:

Allen Craig. He’ll get time everywhere. First base, third base, left field, right field, pinch hitting. Well, not so much first. He was a hitter in the minors, and will have to do it in the bigs. Showed some power in his limited time, but too many strikeouts and not enough walks. He’s okay defensively everywhere but third, and could end up in a right field platoon.

Upside:  they don’t need him to do more than pinch-hit

Downside:  plays a lot of right field because Berkman is at first

Score:   0


Backup catcher:

Gerald Laird. A former starter who hits like a back up, the Cardinals always seem to have one of these guys every year. Some doubles, but no power. Too many strikeouts and decent amount of walks for what he does. His defense is good, and he shouldn’t have to start more than 30 games. He’ll give the team exactly what a back up catcher is supposed to give a team.

Upside:  Molina starts 150 games

Downside:  Laird becomes the starter

Score:  + 1


Backup first baseman:

Lance Berkman. But let’s get this straight. If the Cardinals actually need a back up first baseman, they can pack in the season. Unless it’s a trade that brings the Royals farm system. But if Albert is out for any extended time due to an injury, the team is finished. He’ll get an occasional day off, but this is a guy who doesn’t even DH during interleague games. Nick Punto is hanging around also.

Upside: don’t need one

Downside:  has to play more than 5 games

Score:  0


Back-up infielder:

Tyler Green. Doing what a utility infielder does. Doesn’t hit particularly well, but isn’t terrible. He could fill in for a couple weeks around the infield if needed, and will get some time at second base against lefties. The defense is average, but he plays all over the infield and has been seeing time in the outfield during spring training. He’s not going to hurt the team.

Upside:  shows he can hit if he has to

Downside:  ends up in a platoon

Score:  - 1


Back-up outfielder:

John Jay. A pretty good year last year. Hit for average, and got on base well. Hit a good amount of doubles for the playing time, and popped a few homeruns, but that’s not going to be his strength. Didn’t run particularly well, but did in the minors, so it’s something to work on. Good defensively in the minors. He’ll get some time in right defensively, and will get a fair amount of at bats.

Upside:  could take over for Berkman if needed

Downside:  playing right field because Berkman is at first

Score:  + 1


Rotation (front 3):

Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook, and Jamie Garcia. A good front three, which will help the team a lot. They need to be more than defense and hitting. Wainwright’s loss is a huge loss, and they can’t really replace him. Carpenter goes deep in the game, but Westbrook and Garcia need to make it deeper in. They should all be good for 15 wins. Westbrook is the key and he needs to return to his better years.

Upside:  they all stay healthy and pitch like last year

Downside:  any kind of injury

Score:  + 1


Rotation (back end):

Kyle Lohse and Kyle McClellan. Typical back end of a rotation. They’ve had some success, and some failure. As long as they are both back end, then it shouldn’t be any kind of problem. The main thing the team needs from them is innings. As long as they don’t implode and force a revolving door in the rotation, the front three should do all the heavy work.

Upside:  just have to be steady

Downside:  don’t make to the break

Score:  0


Bullpen:

Jason Motte, Trevor Miller, Mitchell Boggs, Brian Talent and Fernando Salas. A hit and miss bullpen. Not enough innings, and way too many walks. There are some quality arms, and some suspect ones. As long as the starters can go deep, and they should, the bullpen will have less of a load and be fine. If the starters can’t make, it will be a problem.

Upside: none of them will have to pitch too many innings because of LaRussa’s way

Downside:  they’re forced to

Score:  0


Closer:

Ryan Franklin. I’m just not sure about this guy. Most closers only get two or three years to shine, and he’s had two already, and at a late age. He’s getting the job done, but he’s also been pulled from the role before. He doesn’t pitch a lot of games, which is planned, so that should keep him fresh. He doesn’t strike out many for a closer. His lack of work will force the bullpen to go more innings, which they might not be able to do.

Upside:  has one more year

Downside:  not really suited to the role

Score:  0


Team speed (which includes base running):

Not good. It should be better, but it isn’t. They don’t steal bases, they don’t hit doubles or triples, and they don’t have good range in the field. A team like the Cardinals is usually a team that can run, but it just isn’t there this season. Individually there are a couple of guys, but just not for the team.

Upside:  could do it if they really needed to

Downside:  if they need it that bad, it’s not good

Score:  - 1


Team defense:

Good. Strong up the middle except the infield, and strong on the infield corners and weak on the outfield corners. Its’ not as good as it could be, but it is good. The big problem is turning the double play and anything into the corners, but Rasmus will help over in right field some. They will help the staff, particularly with Molina. The pitchers are all good fielders also.

Upside:  some more Gold Gloves

Downside:  the lack of double plays kill them

Score:  + 1


Team batting:

Good. They hit well for good average, get on base at good rate, and have okay power. Some breakout years for the young guys and healthy years for the older ones would make it a great offense. They’ll score a lot, which will take a lot of heat off of the pitching staff. They won’t be as good as the Reds, but it will be more than enough to get them near the top of the division.

Upside:  good enough to overcome any problems with pitching

Downside:  won’t be enough to get them to the top

Score:  + 1


Team pitching:

Neutral. The front three will okay, and the back end of the rotation shouldn’t be a problem. The bullpen is good enough, but not spectacular, and the closer isn’t an elite one. They’ll pitch well enough, but they might have some problems. I’m not convinced this is a good staff, but I don’t think it will implode either. As long as they can all be average, they should be okay.

Upside:  stay healthy and don’t walk too many

Downside:  injuries

Score:  0



Total score:    + 8

Thursday, March 24, 2011

The Pittsburgh Pirates preview


Not even the Cubs can keep this team from finishing in last place. After all these years, they should be getting better, but its not happening. They’re still fairly young, and might get better, but they won’t get any quality free agents for a long time. It’s going to the farm through development and trades to do it, but it hasn’t happened in 20 years. There seems to be a huge problem.


Catcher:

Chris Snyder. Not a bad guy. He’s not a bad choice for this team. His average is terrible, but he does walk and has some power to go with it.  No extra base hits and he doesn’t run at all. His defense is okay, which is sorely needed on this team. He’ll mostly split time with Doumit, but will probably get the majority of the time if Doumit is traded or released.

Upside:  any kind of average will make his numbers even better

Downside:  not a long term answer for this team

Score:  0


First base:

Lyle Overbay. A funny pick up, as Garrett Jones had essentially the same year, is 4 years younger, and costs less money. He’s a proven hitter with some power and lots of doubles. His defence is good, but this isn’t the team for a guy of his experience. The only positive is it gives them a good utility guy in Jones, with some better defense. These aren’t the kind of decisions that will make this team better.

Upside:  will provide some needed stability to the line up

Downside:  he won’t be around after the break

Score:  + 1


Second base:

Neil Walker. A good rookie year for the switch-hitter, he’s got some future and is the kind of guy this team needs. Limited power with extra bases. No speed to speak of, and his defense isn’t good, but he does hit for average and get on base. Strikeouts aren’t great but aren’t bad either. A young guy who has a good future ahead of. It probably won’t be with this team, but someone will take him on.

Upside:  easy to be a star on this team

Downside:  gets buried with all the losing

Score:  + 1


Third base:

Pedro Alvarez. Another good rookie who should have a future. Good power in half a season. Too many strikeouts and too few walks for him, but it should get better with experience. His defense isn’t good, which is a problem all around the infield, but he’s young and has a good future. There is finally some hope for this team if they all start to develop, but they have to keep them all.

Upside:  should only get better

Downside:  will he still be with the team when they need him the most

Score:  + 1


Short stop:

Ronny Cedeno. Another young guy, but a veteran, and another one I’m not sure why they picked up. His defense is bad for a short stop, and he doesn’t hit at all. No average, no walks, no power and limited extra bases. He did run a little bit last year, but not enough to overcome everything else. Another rookie, any rookie, would be better suited for this team.

Upside:  should be replaced soon

Downside:  no one to do it

Score:  - 2


Left field:

Jose Tabata. The last of the amigo’s, he had a good rookie season as well. He hit for average and walked at a good rate for a young guy, and doesn’t strike out too much. No power to speak of, but he does run well. Good defense in left field, but no so much in center, which is where you might want him. They can live with it for now, and he’s got time to get better.

Upside:  lots of time to get better

Downside:  sophomore slump

Score:   + 1


Centerfield:

Andrew McCutcheon. Actually the fourth ace, if they all get played properly. No sophomore slump for him, and he was the best hitter on the team last year. Showing power and extra base power. Runs well and gets around the base. Walks and doesn’t strikeout too much. The defense isn’t great, but he’s not the only one. He’s young, and will get better. Much better.

Upside:  is going to be the star of the team

Downside:  won’t be on the team long

Score:  + 1


Right field:

Garret Jones. Not who I would really want in right field at this stage, as he can’t get it done defensively. His hitting was well off of the previous year, and you have to hope it was a sophomore slump. Still, he’s too old to be starting out here so Overbay can be at first. He has the power, but doesn’t get on base enough and strikes out too much. Can hit some doubles, but doesn’t really run either. A strange move.

Upside:  ends up back at first after Overbay is traded

Downside:  doesn’t bounce back from the slump

Score: -1


Pinch hitter/general utility:

Matt Diaz. Starting the decline, but still a professional hitter. He’ll play the corners, and pinch hit. He can get on base, and he has medium power. His defense is okay, and he can help out at first, if needed. He might end up back in right field if Jones can’t make it, or when Overbay is traded. He’s the kind of veteran the team needs to pick up, not guys who are taking away jobs.

Upside:  last year was just a down year

Downside:  can’t get the stroke back

Score:   0


Backup catcher:

Ryan Doumit. But only until they can dump his salary for pretty much anything. Houston and Boston should be calling soon. His defense is bad, and he isn’t hitting anymore, although he did start drawing walks again. Has medium power and can hit doubles, and isn’t actually as bad as his reputation is getting to be. If he can hit at all, he could end up in a platoon.

Upside:  starts to hit again

Downside:  the reputation is true

Score:  - 1


Backup first baseman:

Garrett Jones. Which would be a good thing, because it will mean Overbay is gone. Jones is better suited to first base defensively and hits the same. This might mean that Diaz is the starter in right field, or someone else gets the job, but its addition by subtraction. There is a good future, but it isn’t with Jones in right field. Still a strange, strange decision.

Upside: gets him out of right field

Downside:  no one to play right field

Score:  0


Back-up infielder:

Josh Rodriguez. A career minor leaguer who should get the chance. He can play all over the field, even though he isn’t good at short stop. He can play the other positions well. He’s hit better the last couple of years in the minors, and can draw a walk. They really shouldn’t need him a lot, as the others will go 140 games plus. That will give him a chance to ease in.

Upside:  doesn’t have to do too much

Downside:  can’t play short

Score:  - 2


Back-up outfielder:

John Bowker. A big guy who can play the outfield and first base, he might get the chance. He has good power and can hit doubles. He doesn’t run much, but his defense is good and will help the team. He strikes out way too much and doesn’t walk very much. More plate discipline will get him more playing time. He could get more playing time depending on what happens with Jones in right field.

Upside:  could hit a lot of homeruns if he plays regularly

Downside:  going to strike out even more

Score:  - 1


Rotation (front 3):

Paul Maholm, Ross Ohlendorf, and Kevin Correia.  As good as the future for the hitters could be, the pitching is that bad. They aren’t good. They don’t pitch enough innings, strike out enough batters, or do anything that really needs to be done. They aren’t really that old, but they’ve all been around long enough that they aren’t developing any more. The team might score, but it won’t be enough.

Upside:  can’t be any worse than it has been

Downside:  nothing to look forward to

Score:  - 2


Rotation (back end):

James McDonald and Charlie Morton. McDonald is as much the future for the staff as they have. He had a good year last year, and should get better. He needs to pitch deeper into the game. Good strikeout to walk ratio and he doesn’t give up homeruns, which will help a lot. Morton hasn’t done much of anything and is a filler piece right now. He’ll have to improve dramatically to be good.

Upside:  McDonald has a future

Downside:  he can’t do it alone

Score:  0


Bullpen:

Evan Meek, Chris Resop, Chris Leroux, Daniel McCutcheon, and Scott Olsen. Not much there except for Meek. He’ll be a good setup man if there is anything to set up. The rest haven’t done anything, and have it done it in very few innings. This is going to be a huge problem, as they won’t be able to bridge the gap between the starters and the closer. Not that there will be anything to bridge.

Upside: Meek will be the best pitcher on the staff

Downside:  he’ll be the only one to make the entire year

Score:  - 1


Closer:

Joel Hanrahan. A good pitcher who will get his first chance to close. Lots of strikeouts and not many hits or homeruns. Too many walks, but he can survive them. The biggest question is will he ever have any games to actually save? He’ll get a few, but it won’t really make any difference. He’s young, so he needs to start working into two inning saves now.

Upside:  will prove that saves aren’t the measure of a closer

Downside:  lowest save total for a closer in history

Score:  + 1


Team speed (which includes base running):

Good. Young players who can run, and should run more as they get playing time. Good range in the outfield, but not so good in the infield. This team should run, and run a lot. They need all the help they can get on offense and defense, and speed is one area where they can be good. The biggest problem is that they have a lot of guys who don’t have any.

Upside:  could lead the league in stolen bases

Downside:  they can’t steal home if they can’t get on base

Score:  + 1


Team defense:

Not so good yet. There are some places, such as catcher and left field, but that’s it. They’ll give away a lot of runs, but it won’t really matter much, as the pitching staff will give up more. There is hope that the young guys will get better, but there is no guarantee. They are grooming hitters, not glove men. That’s probably a good idea at this stage of things.

Upside:  the new guys coming in have gloves

Downside:  they keep signing old guys who don’t

Score:  - 1


Team batting:

Not really. One of the worst offensives in the game. They rank last, next to last, or next to that in almost every category. There are some good young hitters coming up and there is hope for the future, as long as they don’t get traded off. Right now, however, they don’t do anything well at all. They play in a hitter’s park, so that’s really not a good thing.

Upside:  the future

Downside:  do they have one?

Score:  - 2


Team pitching:

Not here either. Worse than offense and there really isn’t any future here. Short relievers are not the future of a good pitching rotation. They will get clobbered again, and there is nothing they can do about it. There will be flashes of brilliance from individuals, but nothing approaching success of any kind. They have some young players to trade for pitching, but then what do they do for the offense?

Upside:  can’t be as bad as the ’62 Mets

Downside:  yes they can

Score:  - 2



Total score:    - 8