The Kansas City Royals preview

Right from the start, I’ll say I’m a Royals fan, so I’m not very objective here. And I’ll be honest, they suck. Badly. There is hope, but not with the current management. They can’t get worse, so maybe they can finally get better, but I don’t see it happening, because all of the wrong moves are being made. They just need to be happy that they play in the same division as the Indians.

Catcher:

Jason Kendall, Bryan Pena, and Luke May. Adequate before Kendall comes back, terrible afterwards. Yost will insist he be the starter, and it just won’t work. They need to get Pena’s bat in the line up, and his defense won’t hurt any more than anyone else’s. Let him and May platoon and take your chances.

Upside:  it takes awhile for Kendall to come back from the injury

Downside:  Kendall is ready for the start of the season

Score:  - 2

First base:

Kila Ka’aihue. And it’s about damn time. Nothing against Butler, but just to get his bat in the line up. This guy has been left sitting behind dead asses that shouldn’t be playing in the majors. He might tank, but I’ll be he doesn’t. I’m looking at 25 homeruns, 85 walks, and better defense. He’s holding the job for Hosmer, so maybe a good year gets him traded for help. Let’s hope.

Upside:  shows the world that Dayton Moore doesn’t know what he’s doing

Downside:  Moore continues to think that he does

Score:  + 1

Second base:

Chris Getz. He’ll get another chance at the job, if he can only stay healthy. Has a lot of upside, but isn’t really showing it yet. Will bring some needed speed to the team, and his defense will help. But Moustakas is waiting in the wings, and Aviles is a slump away from being the starter here. Getz could keep Moustakas in the minors, which the team would like. But there is no reason for it. Someone will get traded. Soon.

Upside:  gets to play the full year and show what he can do

Downside:  odd man out when Moustakas makes his debut

Score:   - 1

Third base:

Mike Avilies. The man with the bat, but without a position. He’s in a holding pattern, but only to find out where he’ll actually play. He’ll stay in the line up when Moustakas takes over, but where is the question. He gets it done everywhere he goes, and will continue to do so. No respect for this guy, but that’s what you get when you replace Dayton Moore’s favorite player.

Upside:  gets to settle into one position and shine

Downside:  he’s the one who gets traded

Score:  + 1

Short stop:

Alcides Escobar. “Where have you gone, Freddie Patek? Royals Nations turns its lonely eyes to you, woo hoo hoo.” All the upside in the world, all the makings of another Tony Pena, Jr. Doesn’t hit, doesn’t steal, defense is nothing special. The sad thing is, people will be begging to have Betancourt back. Escobar got traded for the franchise, and he better do something. Royals fans are good, but they are about to turn. Don’t be Peter Boyle to Kenneth Mars.

Upside:  if Aviles can’t make the throws from short, maybe Getz can

Downside:  Moore tries to prove he can really evaluate shortstops

Score:  - 1

Left field:

Alex Gordon. I really want him to succeed. I really do. But it’s not happening. This is his last chance in a Royals uniform, and he’s not really trade bait. There are some prospects that will push him, and his job security is the worst of anyone in the outfield. Maybe it would be good if he were cut loose. I think a trip to the National League would better suit his game, and he still might hit.

Upside:  shows why he was a first round pick

Downside:  DFA

Score:  - 1

Centerfield:

Melky Cabrera. Not Lorenzo Cain, they guy they traded Grienke for. No, that’s not good enough. Another retread is a better option than letting the young guy play. Because already proving you can’t be a starter is much better than proving you might be. He’s not even a good center fielder. But he was a Brave, so he meets all the requirements. The only change will be that he goes to left field when Gordon goes out.

Upside:  has a decent start and gets traded at the break

Downside:  plays just well enough to keep Cain down

Score:  - 1

Right field:

Jeff Francoeur. I’m going to leave it at this. Signing Francoeur is proof that Dayton Moore is the worst GM in the major leagues. The incompetence is astounding. The Royals will never get to .500 while he is in charge. It just won’t happen.

Upside:  none

Downside:  Rowland Office wants to make a come back

Score:  0

Designated hitter:

Billy Butler. Finally a bright spot. The guy is a hitter, and not playing defense this year should help even more. He could use some more power, but people seem to forget that Kaufman is not a hitter’s park, and home runs aren’t easy. He might finally have some help in the line up with Ka’aihue, and maybe Moustakas. He might not hit 20 home runs, but he might get 60 doubles.

Upside:  develops more power

Downside:  has to play in the field

Score:  + 2

Backup catcher:

Pena and May, because Kendall will get to start. Only Pena’s bat keeps this respectable. May doesn’t hit and isn’t a great fielder. Pena doesn’t field well either, but he’s better than Kendall and can hit. So guess who starts and who sits. Ned Yost was a catcher. Why can’t he figure this out? The Royals don’t have enough offense to hide gloves. Or lack of production. Especially for a guy who hits second.

Upside:  Pena gets lots of playing time

Downside:  Kendall plays all year

Score:  - 1

Backup first baseman:

Butler. Or Gordon. If Butler goes to first, that will hurt the DH, but not first. Some, defensively, but not that bad. Gordon can fill in on occasion, if needed. Hosmer could get the call if it’s a long term issue. Either way, there won’t be a huge drop off. Butler and Ka’aihue will probably rotate in and out anyhow.

Upside: don’t need one

Downside:  Butler has to play the field too much

Score:  + 1

Back-up infielder:

Wilson Betemit. Credit where credit is due, he had a good year last year. He’s not the best defensively, but he’s been shuttled around a lot of positions and a lot of teams. He does hit, and could get the nod at third if Aviles has to move somewhere else. Or even at short, but that might be a stretch. He gives the team flexibility and will get decent playing time.

Upside:  gets to be a utility guy all year as everyone else does the job

Downside:  can’t repeat last year

Score:  + 1

Back-up outfielder:

Mitch Maier. Because Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur are much better in the starting line up. Maier gets no respect, but he can play all three positions. Nothing fantastic and he shouldn’t start. But when you’re better than everyone else out there, you should get the opportunity. Movement around the outfield won’t affect him, unless it is Gordon. He’ll stay the back up if anyone else comes up.

Upside:  fills his role and does it well

Downside:  isn’t any better than the others when he has to start

Score:   0

Rotation (front 3):

Jeff Francis, Luke Hochevar, and Kyle Davies. Because all the good pitchers are in the minors, so Moore doesn’t understand that they exist. To be fair, I think Hochevar is going to be good (on a better team) and Davies just over achieves. Getting out of Coors might help Francis, but he’s too far gone from his glory days. The staff isn’t going to intimidate anyone, and they all have to prove they can win on a consistent basis.

Upside:  Francis can get it back

Downside:  Davies tanks before the break

Score:  - 1

Rotation (back end):

Vin Mazzaro and Sean O’Sullivan. Yeah, exactly. Because in Kansas City, all the good starters are in the minors. And get to stay there. For a long time. While these guys set a record for how few innings they’ll get per start. Seriously, why isn’t Soria starting? It’s not like he’s going to get any save opportunities. The season is already looking grim.

Upside:  roster moves before opening day

Downside:  they get 15 starts each

Score:  - 2

Bullpen:

Blake Wood, Jesse Chavez, Kanekoa Texeira, Greg Holland, and Robinson Tejeda. Two guys – Wood and Tejeda – who should be starting, but for some reason, this team is content to go with what they have. They probably won’t be as bad as it looks, because they’ll have to pitch way more innings than any bullpen should. It doesn’t matter if they blow saves, because there won’t be many opportunities to do it.

Upside:  Wood and Tejeda move into the rotation

Downside:  they’re overworked by May 15^th

Score:  - 1

Closer:

Joakim Soria. But why? Why do you need a guy who can save 45 games when your team will have a hard time winning 60? When you suck this bad, there is no room for false respectability. Soria’s a great closer, but he isn’t needed on this team. The only question about Soria is whether the Red Sox out bid the Yankees for him, and what the team gets in return.

Upside:  gets traded to a team that can actually use him

Downside:  only pitches once a week while waiting for save opportunities that never come

Score:  + 2

Team speed (which includes base running):

Average with the guys they have, better when the young guns finally get a chance. Lots of stupid base running mistakes last year, but they should be better. Some speed with Getz, and good on the bases with some of the others. And then some who need a traffic cop to know when to move. It won’t be of any use this year, but maybe next year. We hope.

Upside:  the young guys use it when they get called up

Downside:  the young guys don’t get called up

Score:  0

Team defense:

Again, it depends on who is out there. This could be a good defensive team, if all the right parts are in place. But they aren’t and won’t be. Decent up the middle, but not good. When Franceour’s defense is a positive, you have problems. They won’t cost the pitchers, but they won’t help them. The big outfield should help, and the infield won’t disappoint.

Upside:  they are all better than we think

Downside:  the guys with the gloves don’t hit

Score:  0

Team batting:

Might possibly have more power this year, but will also have the strikeouts to go with it. Depends on the line up construction. If you have guys at the top of the order who don’t get on, you don’t score a lot. Getz and Gordon have to show they can do it. Ka’aihue needs to hit. More walks would help, and they might do it this year. At least everywhere but the right field position.

Upside:  the guys who need to hit actually do

Downside:  Francoeur and Cabrera are the team leaders

Score:  - 1

Team pitching:

The pitching will be good. When all the pitcher in the minors are on the big club. Until then, it doesn’t really matter. The guys who could be good are not being utilized properly, except for Hochevar, and he’s being crucified for not being Zack Greinke. Soria is wasted and won’t finish the season with the team. When they get good enough to use him, he’ll be closing out World Series games.

Upside:  the minor leagues gets cleared out and comes up

Downside:  Dayton Moore is still the GM

Score:  - 1

Total score:    - 5

The Cleveland Indians preview

A slow descent into the abyss and only the Royals keep them from being truly awful. The only bright spot on this team is a guy hoping he can hold on until Free Agency. A roster of leftovers and afterthoughts doesn’t provide much hope for the future. It will be a hard fought battle for last place in the division, but this team is well up to the challenge. Bob Hope used to be part owner of the Indians, and if he still did, that would be the only hope they had.

Catcher:

Carlos Santana. A switch hitter who can get on base, he’s shown some power. Not much experience at this level, but he held his own. He’s shown well for the minors, but he’s beyond that now and will have to stick. Neutral defense, he can throw out some runners. How he handles this pitching staff is actually much more important than how he hits.

Upside:  does in the majors what he did in the minors

Downside:  becomes a Victor Martinez clone

Score:  0

First base:

Matt LaPorta. He’s young (25) and could still develop, but it has to be soon. No defense, so he has to hit, and he hasn’t really done that. No average, so he needs to walk and hit homeruns, which he doesn’t do enough of. Choo needs help, and LaPorta needs to be the one to do it. He’ll get the job and probably keep it, but only because there is no one else.

Upside:  starts hitting homeruns

Downside:  can Travis Hafner play first?

Score:  - 2

Second base:

Orlando Cabrera. For the sake of old time baseball names, Cabrera will hence forth be known as ‘Nomad’. A bad year for him, even by his standards, and he’s not getting younger. He’s slowing down and his defense is getting worse, and that was strength of his game. He would be better suited as a utility infielder, but it won’t happen on this club, unless anyone at all steps up. Keep in mind he’s only played 33 games at second in his career.

Upside:  becomes a utility infielder

Downside:  starts over 100 games

Score:   - 2

Third base:

Jayson Nix. A 28 year old part-timer, he doesn’t hit for average, hit for power, or walk. He doesn’t field particularly well at third base, but can’t play second because of Cabrera. The sad fact is that no one else is good enough to push him off of third. He did tie for second for the team lead with 13 home runs, so more at bats might mean more round trippers. As well as more strikeouts and fly ball outs.

Upside:  someone in the minor leagues is ready to go

Downside:  the Indians have a plan

Score:  - 2

Short stop:

Adrusbal Cabrera. Injuries last year took its toll. His extra base hits dropped, he stopped walking, though he never did much, and his defense is regressing. Playing on a team like this is not a good motivating factor for going out and working harder. He’s young, he’s had good years, and he can come back to what he has done in the past. The question is, can he do it?

Upside:  gets better with age

Downside:  the offense has to rely on him as an important piece of the puzzle

Score:  0

Left field:

Mickey Brantley. For his size, he doesn’t hit for power, and he doesn’t use his speed for extra bases. He doesn’t strike out a lot, but doesn’t walk either. He should be better suited for left field than center, as long as Sizemore is healthy. Not sure what his game will be, but he’ll need to figure it out quickly. If he doesn’t hit, he’ll end up in a platoon with Austin Kearns.

Upside:  figures out what his game is and starts doing it

Downside:  ends up in center field

Score:  - 1

Centerfield:

Grady Sizemore. I’ll believe it when I see it. Still in his prime, but injuries are killing his career faster than Rat Race. If he can come back healthy, he can help make the team somewhat respectable. If not, there is no hope. A move to left field might actually help but then who plays center? If he is healthy, he looks to be trade bait by the All-Star game.

Upside:  stays healthy and becomes just like Jim Edmonds

Downside:  Paul Dade, anyone? Paul Dade?

Score:  0

Right field:

Shin-Soo Choo. It’s lonely at the top time. The only, as of now, good player on this team, he can’t carry them by himself. He needs more help, and he needs it soon. A good, all around player, he does everything he needs to. He’s only getting better, and Cleveland fans should be worried. He’s gone by the All-Star game, and hopefully he’ll bring several prospects as they Indians work towards the 2017.

Upside:  has a fast start so he gets traded to a contender early

Downside:  starts getting on base like Barry Bonds

Score:  + 2

Designated hitter:

Travis Hafner. Better than he gets credit for, he’s only had one bad year, and that was due to an injury. He doesn’t hit as many home runs as he did, but he gets fewer at bats. He still gets on base, and can hit doubles, if not homeruns. A healthy year and a weak line up will get him more plate appearances. He’ll put up good numbers, but he’ll also be gone by the break if he does.

Upside:  becomes Jim Thome

Downside:  someone gets hurt and he has to play the field

(I know, I used that for Dunn also, but it still works)

Score:  + 1

Backup catcher:

Lou Marson. His first shot at playing regularly, and his bat didn’t know it, but his glove did. He’s young and can still improve. He’ll get a lot of games spelling Santana and for defensive purposes. Has to hit better to get extended playing time, which would help the team. With his glove, if he’s hits at all, Santana can move to first, and the team gets better.  Can also run a little.

Upside:  learns to hit major league pitching

Downside:  not as funny as Bob Uecker

Score:  0

Backup first baseman:

Shelley Duncan. At least by the depth chart, but I don’t see this lasting. He and LaPorta both hit right handed, and neither one of them do this particularly well. I don’t see him eating up a roster spot. This will most likely be anyone who can hold the position for a day, if LaPorta hits. If not, a new first baseman comes in and LaPorta is the back up.

Upside: they don’t need one

Downside:  Santana has to do it while Marson doesn’t hit

Score:  - 2

Back-up infielder:

Luis Valbuena or Jason Donald. Probably not room for both, but it might have to happen. Donald is the better hitter, while Valbuena is the better fielder. They hit from opposite sides, so there could be room for each. While Adrusbal Cabrera seems to be a lock, no one on the infield is guaranteed of anything. Could be lots of mixing and matching.

Upside:  they get a chance to start and play better than any of the others

Downside:  they get a chance to start and play worse than any of the others

Score:  0

Back-up outfielder:

Trevor Crowe or Austin Kearns. Probably both, but one needs to learn to play first base. Kearns is the better hitter, and is not bad defensively. Crowe is better defensively and switch hits. I think they are both here, and that’s not really a problem. Injuries and lack of production could get both of them lots of playing time, maybe even a platoon. Both have started and could again, especially for this team.

Upside:  Sizemore is healthy and Brantley hits

Downside:  they have too many slots to fill

Score:   + 1

Rotation (front 3):

Fausto Carmona, Justin Masterson, and Jeanmar Gomez. Carmona was okay last year, and really cut down his walks. Masterson is regressing as he pitches more innings, so he needs to break out this year, or face a move to the pen. Gomez didn’t impress anyone last year, and hasn’t been great in the minors. He has a decent strikeout rate, but too many walks. Going to be lots of trouble, and won’t get much run support. I don’t think they can make a difference this year.

Upside:  become league average

Downside:  stay where they are

Score:  - 1

Rotation (back end):

Carlos Carrasco and Josh Tomlin. Some potential. Carrasco can bring some heat, and Tomlin was adequate last year. Neither is poised to become a big time starter, but it wouldn’t matter if they did. They need to eat innings, keep it close, and hope for the best. A move up in the rotation isn’t necessarily a promotion, but it should happen nonetheless.

Upside:  young, and can improve

Downside:  as good as it gets

Score:  - 1

Bullpen:

Tony Sipp, Rafael Perez, Joe Smith, Jensen Lewis, and Frank Herman. Remember the three guys that won the 400 meter gold with Jesse Owens? I don’t either, but guess what? It took all four to win. No one will ever know who this bullpen is, but that doesn’t mean they should be ignored. It’s not bad. Too many walks, but a lot of strike outs. Sipp is a closer in the making. They can also go a lot of innings, which they’ll have to. A strength for the team.

Upside:  perform as well with notoriety as they do with anonymity

Downside:  get known for all the wrong reasons

Score:  + 1

Closer:

Chris Perez. A quality closer, no one will ever know, because he’ll never the chance to save more than 20 games a season. And it’s about the numbers, not how well you pitch. If the starters can get the bullpen a lead, they could win a few games and Perez will help. But he also figures to get a lot of work in non-save situations so he doesn’t spend weeks at a time on the bench. Going to strike out a lot.

Upside:  people will realize that the number of saves doesn’t make a pitcher

Downside:  won’t get very many of them

Score:  + 2

Team speed (which includes base running):

Good. Even had a catcher with 8 stolen bases. Won’t steal a lot of bases, but they should be good on the base paths and get lots of doubles and triples. Range in the field should be good, which will help the pitchers. They won’t hit a lot of homeruns, so every little thing they do is important.

Upside:  helps the offense a lot

Downside:  becomes too much a part of the offense

Score:  + 1

Team defense:

Should be okay, especially up the middle, depending on who is at second. The corners will be trouble, but the outfield will help that. The pitching staff is going to need all the help they can get. The problem is, they can’t hide too many gloves with the bats they have. Defense or offense, the age old question?

Upside:  helps the pitching staff

Downside:  weak offense keeps the gloves on the bench

Score:  + 1

Team batting:

Not a lot of it, and nothing to get excited about. Choo will hit, Hafner should, and Sizemore might. Beyond that, it’s all guess work. Bit players and young guys who haven’t done anything yet. They’re not going to be good, and that’s a problem with the pitching. The waiver wire will be singing before the start of the season.

Upside:  can’t be any worse

Downside:  Sizemore and Hafner can’t continue like they have

Score:  - 2

Team pitching:

Not good, but not terrible. The rotation isn’t going to do anything to help matter. The bullpen will be okay, but only if they are given something to work with. Lots of strikeouts, but lots of walks. Lots of roster moves. The offense won’t do enough to save them, and they won’t be able to save themselves. They have to manage the bullpen well to avoid a complete meltdown.

Upside:  the starters can keep it tied to the fifth

Downside:  the bullpen throws too many innings and loses it effectiveness

Score:  0

Total score:    - 3

The season preview

This is going to be my attempt to do a season preview. I don’t know why, but it seems to be all the rage with baseball bloggers, so I might as well do it also. I’ll be breaking it down by division, doing one a week, which should lead up to the beginning of spring training. The teams will be graded on the following positions:

Catcher

First base

Second base

Third base

Short stop

Left field

Center field

Right field

Designated hitter (for American League teams, and only because I have to)

Starting rotation (front 3, because most teams don’t have more than 3 guys)

Back end (the last two, or whoever can fill the role)

Bullpen (the combination of lefty/righty, the quality, and who could step in at closer)

Closer (because managers still believe, even if most of us don’t)

Back-up catcher (because it’s more important than you think)

Back-up first baseman (because this is usually the stud of the team)

Back-up infielder (needs to be versatile)

Back-up outfielder (can he play all three positions)

This gives 13 position players, which is what most American League teams will carry. The National League team will get an additional bench player to look at, mostly as a pinch hitter type.

The teams will also be graded on the following areas:

Team speed (to include base running)

Team defense (because you have to catch the ball)

Team batting (because you have to hit the ball)

Team pitching (because you have to throw the ball)

How they will be graded is a point system, from -2 to +2. Each area will get that grade, and the team will get an overall score. That is not necessarily how they will be picked to finish, as there are many other factors involved, but it’s a start.

The grade will not be sabermetric, nor will it be based on traditional stats. It will not be based on some super secret formula, or voodoo. It will be based on the worst possible thing that could ever happen in baseball:  my perspective.

I will try to take into account injuries, contract years, attitudes, bounce back years, how they look this year compared to last year, have they upgraded/downgraded, and if the player is due for a decline. Simples. Nothing fancy, just what I think.

I’ll start with the American League East, because baseball is all about its East Coast bias

Then the American League Central

The American League West

The National League Central (because the AL West has 4 teams, and the NL Central has 6, and I can keep on schedule --- but you knew that already, didn’t you)

The National League East

The National League West

Then the week after, I’ll do a recap of each division and pick the winners, wild cards, and all the other good stuff we think we know in advance, but really don’t.