The Detroit Tigers preview

They’re up, they’re down, they’re all around. A team that always fails to impress me, or to disappoint me. They just are. They finished .500, but they shouldn’t have. I thought they would finish second and make it close, but not cigar. Hitting is good, but the pitching isn’t getting them anywhere. Except when the pitch well and then don’t hit. Who knows what to expect.

Catcher:

Alex Avila. Not a bad choice. He’s good with the glove, but won’t hit much. His bat isn’t that important, as there is plenty of offense to go around. As long as he can help the pitching staff and at least maintain what he did last year, he’ll be fine. The important thing is to catch and hit well enough to keep Victor Martinez from behind the plate.

Upside:  starts to develop more as a hitter to go with the glove

Downside:  defense drops

Score:  0

First base:

Miguel Cabrera. Albert Pujols is keeping this guy from being the best hitter in the game. A lot of people will think Cabrera will be distracted, but I don’t see it. The guy just hits. I think the only issue is how much time he misses if he goes into rehab. If he goes now, he won’t miss more than a week or two, because this guy at his worst is better than almost anyone else.

Upside:  realizes what he has to lose

Downside:  the distractions play out

Score:  + 2

Second base:

Carlos Guillen. The career this guy could have had, if not for the injuries. A complete shame. Another position switch, and at his age, not an easy one. If he hits like he’s healthy, they’ll live with the lack of defense. If he can’t stay healthy, it won’t matter. He’s more valuable to this line up than people think he is. Too many DH types will make it a difficult year.

Upside:  stays healthy

Downside:  doesn’t

Score:   0

Third base:

Brandon Inge. A ‘scrappy’ player who hits just well enough to avoid the tag, he’s not really a great hitter. All or none power, and no walks, leaves him lacking at the plate. What he does bring is good defense, the ability and desire to play every day, and flexibility if there are any issues. A long-term Tiger, and the face of the franchise right now, he’s getting older. His glove won’t keep him a regular, but it will keep him employed.

Upside:  one last big year --- for him

Downside:  starts his utility career this season

Score:  0

Short stop:

Jhonny Peralta. A durable guy who can play every day, he’s on the down slope with this bat. He’s young enough to return to form, but won’t here. He’s got some power, but it will be wasted in Comerica. He doesn’t walk, and he doesn’t run, so he’ll have to play defense, and he can do that. Inge will help him squeeze second, which should help out Guillen. A return to a few seasons ago would really help the team.

Upside:  loses the power and tries to get on base

Downside:  swings for the fences

Score:  0

Left field:

Ryan Rayburn. A good player for the team, he’ll be a help down in the order. Average defense, but he is versatile. Gets on base, and adequate power, he won’t be the MVP, but he won’t embarrass himself. Could end up at second base if Guillen can’t go. He has a couple of more years as a full time player before he becomes Jim Wohlford.

Upside:  continues to get better.

Downside:  ends up out of position and hurts the defense

Score:  0

Centerfield:

Austin Jackson. Maybe I’m reading this wrong, but I seem to hear lots of comments about Jackson not being good enough. I don’t know why, because he is. He had a good rookie year, and should only get better. A lot of people are too concerned that home runs are the most important part of the game, but I disagree. Jackson does a lot of other things well. Speed, gets on base, some walks (he’ll draw more), and extra base power. The big problem is the strikeouts and less than average defense. He’ll get better.

Upside:  makes people forget about Curtis Granderson

Downside:  a sophomore slump

Score:  0

Right field:

Magglio Ordonez. Still an outstanding hitter regardless of all the injuries. Losing his power, but still gets on base. Doesn’t run well, but he’ll be okay with the other hitters on the team. He’s not there to score runs, he’s there to knock other guys in. He should do a lot of that. Defensively, he should be a designated hitter, but can’t fill that role on this team. He’ll hit, but get a lot of days off.

Upside:  can stay healthy for a full season and hit the way he does

Downside:  his defense keeps him out of the line up

Score:  + 1

Designated hitter:

Victor Martinez. A man without a position, he’ll keep others from getting a rest because he can’t play their positions. Comerica will drop his home run totals, but increase his doubles. A full season without catching could bring some big numbers. If he could learn to play right field, he’d help the team even more. He gets on base and provides versatility at catcher and first base, if needed.

Upside:  not catching turns him into Joe Mauer

Downside:  has to catch and the numbers dropped

Score:  + 1

Backup catcher:

Victor Martinez. Should be okay. He’s not a terrible catcher, and we know he can hit. The only issue is how many games he has to catch, as the offense will suffer. If Avila can go 140 games, it won’t hurt Martinez to catch and give roster flexibility. With Inge on the team, there is good depth on the team for catching.

Upside:  doesn’t get into too many games

Downside:  Avila can’t make it every day

Score:  + 1

Backup first baseman:

Says Don Kelly on the depth chart, but I don’t see this either. It will be Martinez, or maybe even Ordonez on occasion. No reason to carry a guy to only get into 15 games when there are others already available. The only way I see Kelly doing this is if Cabrera isn’t ready to go, and that will only be temporary. When Miggy needs a day off, Martinez will do it.

Upside: Cabrera gets it worked out and doesn’t miss more than a week or two

Downside:  Kelly becomes the starter here or designated hitter

Score:  + 1

Back-up infielder:

Ramon Santiago. He’ll do exactly what he needs to do. Provide some defense and give the regulars a day off. He won’t hit much, but he never has. He might not get much time at third, but Rayburn can fill in there. If Guillen can’t go full time, Santiago could put in some games at short stop while Peralta moves over. Extra time will help the defense, and shouldn’t be an issue with the offense, as there is plenty of it.

Upside:  fills the role and doesn’t have to bat too many times

Downside:  has to go full time for one of the starters

Score:  0

Back-up outfielder:

Brandon Boesch. Mostly a starter last year, due to injuries, he should take on a fourth outfielder role this year, or possibly a platoon with Rayburn. Hits okay, and plays good defense. It was his first season, so the jury is still out on what he can do. This won’t leave a true center fielder for back up, but they shouldn’t need much. The flexibility at other positions could let them carry an extra player, if wanted. Good shape here, as Boesch could start for a lot of team.

Upside:  gets lots of playing time

Downside:  doesn’t like sitting and doesn’t play as well

Score:   + 1

Rotation (front 3):

Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Rick Porcello. Verlander is the stud, and Scherzer is pretty good, also. Porcello is the weak link, but that was his sophomore slump. If he rebounds back to his rookie year, and there is no reason to think he won’t, then the staff is even better. He’s only 21, so there is a big upside. Good strikeouts and low walks for the first two, Porcello should get better. They need more innings from the young guys.

Upside:  Verlander justifies his Cy Young votes and the others are good

Downside:  they’ve all peaked

Score:  + 1

Rotation (back end):

Brad Penny and Phil Coke. Coke is converting to a starter after three years as a short man, which is unusual at his age. Penny was good last year, when healthy, but he hasn’t been for a full season in a while. No expectations from them, as the front three should do all the work, but anything will be a help. This doesn’t seem like the way to go for a staff that could help the team contend, so let’s hope it works out.

Upside:  Penny stays healthy and Coke can go the innings

Downside:  can’t get any innings out of them

Score:  - 1

Bullpen:

Joaquin Benoit, Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, and Brad Thomas.  If you like strikeouts, this is the bullpen for you. If you don’t like walks, then don’t watch. It won’t be pretty. Nothing to impress here, except how hard they throw. They won’t give up a lot of home runs, but that’s due to the park. The starters are going to have to go a lot of innings. Zumaya being healthy will help, but that’s a big gamble.

Upside:  everyone stops throwing balls and they keep throwing strikes

Downside:  just aren’t good enough to get the job done

Score:  - 2

Closer:

Jose Valverde. A down year, as he walked more than he usually does, and stuck out fewer than normal. It could be the adjustment to a new league, and probably is. He’s still a quality closer, but has to hope the bullpen can hold the lead for him. Closers have a short shelf-life, and Valverde has been going for awhile. The bullpen isn’t going to provide a lot of help, so he’ll have to go back to form.

Upside:  works out his control issues

Downside:  can’t adjust to the league

Score:  + 1

Team speed (which includes base running):

Okay. Jackson can run, but there isn’t a lot of speed with the rest of the team. Lots of doubles and triples, but that’s the size of the outfield, not the players. With a park like Comerica, more speed would help the team. They have a lot of sluggers and won’t have a problem scoring run, so this might not hurt. But it won’t help, either.

Upside:  anything is an improvement

Downside:  its not there when they need it

Score:  - 1

Team defense:

Should be good. A little weak on the right side, but good on the left. Jackson should get better as he learns the park. Ordonez will hurt in right, and Martinez won’t help when he catches, but they’ll have to live with it. The big park and the good gloves should help the staff, and that might help overcome all the walks. Should help with the run differential.

Upside:  none really. Any upgrade to the defense hurts the offense

Downside:  Ordonez can’t get the job done and leaves a hole

Score:  + 1

Team batting:

Should be really good. Lots of power, they all get on base, and they can score runs. The only issue is that they go station to station. They’ll be on base, but might not score as many runs as they should because of the lack of speed. But it won’t be for lack of effort. It will be the best offense in the division, and they’ll be in line for several Silver Slugger awards.

Upside:  more homeruns than expected make the lack of speed irrelevant

Downside:  Cabrera’s issues tear the offense apart

Score:  + 1

Team pitching:

The good, the bad, and nothing really too ugly. Good starting pitching, poor bullpen effort, and a good closer. The starter will have to go a lot of innings, and the bullpen will walk a lot of guys. They’ll strike out a lot, and not give up too many home runs at home. If the bull pen can’t get the job done, it will be a long summer, but they should have their innings reduced.

Upside:  the bullpen learns the strike zone

Downside:  no one improves

Score:  0

Total score:    + 7

The Chicago White Sox preview

A team I love to mis-evaluate. I can never figure out how they are going to do. When I think they’re up, they aren’t. When I think they’re down, they win. Last year I thought they would make the playoffs in a surprise. I think they will this year also. In fact, I think they will be very good. I don’t know why. I’m not a White Sox fan, but I’m still going to pick them to advance.

Catcher:

A.J. Pierzynski. The guy everyone loves to hate, he comes to play and to win. Nothing wrong with that. Last year was the worst year of his career, and there is no reason to think he can bounce back to a higher level of mediocrity. He’s below average defensively, which hurts when you can’t hit. But the Sox have no choice, as the back up is equally old Ramon Castro, a career back up. Pierzynski won’t hurt, but he won’t help either.

Upside:  White Sox make a roster move

Downside:  the roster move plays worse

Score:  - 1

First base:

Paul Konerko. The best year of his career, as defined by the super stats, he’ll be hard pressed to do it again. Fortunately, he won’t have to do it all alone as the Sox have some good hitters. He defense isn’t great, and he won’t get a chance to DH, but he’s not there for his glove. His bat will make up for it. He’ll be looking for his 400^th home run this year. He won’t hit like last year, but even a drop off is still good.

Upside:  the new contract has him motivated

Downside:  age can’t do what money can

Score:  + 1

Second base:

Gordon Beckham. Worse numbers in fewer at bats than 2009 didn’t make a lot of people a believer, but let’s put it down to the Sophomore Slump. If it really exists. Or it could have been the position switch. He’ll help with the glove, needs to get on base, and could show medium range power. He doesn’t have to be a star on this team, but he can’t drag them down either.

Upside:  does at second base what he did at third

Downside:  isn’t a second baseman

Score:   0

Third base:

Brent Morel. At least on the depth chart. A rookie who hasn’t shown much, even in the minors. Medium power and decent average, but no walks and not much on defense. Mark Tehan is still in the mix, and could end up the starter, or it could be a platoon. Tehan has never really started to hit, and isn’t a plus with his glove, at any position. He’s likely the super sub, so him starting isn’t going to help. Another option is Dayan Viciedo, a young Cuban who showed some power, but no glove. He’ll probably need more time in the minors.

Upside:  someone hits well enough to hold the job

Downside:  no one hits and a roster move is forced

Score:  - 2

Short stop:

Alexis Ramirez. Last year’s American League Silver Slugger, he’s consistent, if average. His glove will help, and the team will be good up the middle. If he can repeat last year’s numbers, he’s a solid player for the team. He needs to get on base more. He does a lot of things well, but not spectacular. He’s old to still be ‘improving’, but maintaining will be okay.

Upside:  any slight improvement

Downside:  injuries or a prolonged slump

Score:  + 1

Left field:

Juan Pierre. I’m going to start the official “shut the hell up and leave Juan Pierre alone” fan club. Seriously, the guy doesn’t deserve all the bashing he gets. He’s a good player, even if he isn’t a statistical darling. He’s walked more than he’s struck out in his career, has an above average OBP, steals a shit load of bases, hits triples (I love ‘em) and plays excellent defense in left field. If you have a bunch of bashers in you line up, there is nothing wrong with having Juan Pierre out there somewhere. He’ll help, not hurt.

Upside:  does what he does every year, even If the experts don’t like him

Downside:  Ozzie starts listening to the experts

Score:  + 1

Centerfield:

Alexis Rios. A good year. He’ll never become a superstar, but he’s helping his team. He needs to walk more and cut down on his strikeouts, but that probably isn’t going to happen at his age. He’s better suited defensively in right field than center, but with his range, he can still be effective. If he can maintain what he’s doing, he’ll be fine.

Upside: just gets to play

Downside:  one of the big boppers gets hurt, and he has to contribute more than he can

Score:  + 1

Right field:

Carlos Quentin. When he’s healthy and plays full time, he’s a good one to have out there. He has to hope he’s healthy this year. He’ll have lots of help on offense and doesn’t need to press, just do what he’s capable of. Defensively he best as a designated hitter, but that’s not an option here. He has a terrible year defensively, so he really needs to work on that.

Upside:  stays healthy

Downside:  his up year / down year career is due for a down year

Score:  + 1

Designated hitter:

Adam Dunn. Free from the necessity of carrying a glove, he might have that break out year every one has been waiting for. All he has to do is hit, and he does that very well. Proving that batting average isn’t the best metric (I do like it, but there is more to a player than that), he does what he’s supposed to. Gets on base, and gets around them. He’s got quite a few bats around him, and they’ll all work together to take pressure off of him. The only downside is that he can’t play the field, which means one of the big bats is out of the line up when a day off is needed.

Upside:  becomes Jim Thome

Downside:  someone gets hurt and he has to play the field

Score:  + 2

Backup catcher:

Ramon Castor or Tyler Flowers. A 34-year old career back up who will get into way more games than he needs to, or a rookie who has regressed through the minors. To be fair, Castro isn’t terrible with the bat, and is okay with the glove. But he’ll already have to start at least 40 games. Do you really want him starting more? Flower won’t be up unless Pierzynski goes down, but he’s not really an option either.

Upside:  Castro does well again in limited playing time

Downside:  Castro becomes the starter

Score:  - 1

Backup first baseman:

Mark Tehan. He’s okay for this position. You wouldn’t want him to do it full time, but he can fill in. Adam Dunn is the other option, and while you really don’t want him fielding, it’s not a major concern at this position. Tehan will field better, Dunn will hit better. As long as it’s a few games, no harm will come of this. Major playing time will not be good. This will cause too many issues with the line-up.

Upside:  Konerko is healthy and starts 140+ games

Downside:  Doctor Strangeglove is already taken if Dunn has to play, forcing a nickname search

Score:  - 1

Back-up infielder:

Omar Vizquel all the way around, and Tehan at third and second, if needed. This is okay. Vizquel’s got the glove, and Tehan can hit as well as any back up infielder. He’s not terrible defensively, and can maintain the position. What really happens here is what Morel dose at third. Tehan would mostly likely get the call over Vizquel, but a platoon could happen. Or a position move with Beckham. Lots of things, but none of the terribly bad.

Upside:  they don’t have to become full time starters

Downside:  not enough playing time for both of them

Score:  + 1

Back-up outfielder:

Mark Tehan. Again, not bad here. He has played the outfield, has a good arm, decent range, and won’t hurt. He’ll hit well enough for a back up, and do a good job out there. He could play center in a pinch, but Pierre would most likely move over there. He doesn’t really get figure to get a lot of playing time, as long as everyone stays healthy. He’s going to have a long career as a super sub.

Upside:  doesn’t have to start more than 15 games at any one position

Downside:  has to take over at third and there is not back up

Score:   0

Rotation (front 3):

Mark Buehrle, Gavin Floyd, and Jon Danks. It’s not a spectacular rotation, but it’s more than good enough. They don’t give up home runs, and they don’t walk too many. Strike out rates are good, and they also eat innings. None of these guys is going to win the Cy Young, but there will be lots of wins when they are pitching. They’ll have good defense behind and runs to work with. They should all get 15 wins (yeah, I know, but someone gets them) and that’s about what to expect.

Upside:  they’re young and keep getting better

Downside:  any kind of injuries

Score:  + 1

Rotation (back end):

Edwin Jackson and Jake Peavey. Jackson may have actually been their best pitcher last year, once he joined the team. Peavey is a former Cy Young award winner who is still battling injuries. If Peavey is healthy, they aren’t exactly the Phillies. But I wouldn’t laugh at them either. If Peavey can’t go (and remember, they really don’t need him before May), they’ll have to make some kind of move. If he can go, so can the White Sox.

Upside:  Jackson becomes one of the front three and it becomes a front 4

Downside:  Peavey never gets healthy

Score:  + 1

Bullpen:

Chris Sale, Jesse Crain, Tony Pena, Will Oman, and Sergio Santo. I’m not really impressed with these guys. They have been okay in limited roles, but all of them together don’t really make an effective bullpen in my mind. Way too many walks, which is never good for the relievers. Not many home runs given up, but they are also all one inning pitchers, except for Pena. That means he’s the bridge if the starters can’t do any distance.

Upside:  the rotation goes deep and limits their innings

Downside:  they all have to pitch one inning every day

Score:  -1

Closer:

Matt Thornton. Not to be confused with Trooper Thorn, he does have a knock out punch, and will strike out a lot. That has all come as a set up man in the past, and he’s never closed before, so it will be interesting to see what happens. He’ll need to get strike outs, as the rest of the bullpen will walk a lot of guys. He’s had great numbers in the eighth inning. Can he do it in the ninth?

Upside:  doesn’t notice what inning he pitches in

Downside:  always has to come in with the bases loaded

Score:  + 1

Team speed (which includes base running):

Good in the 2/3rds of the outfield, and the middle infield. Tehan and Vizquel won’t hurt you. The rest are pedestals. But the guys who can run (if they get on base) can score off the bats of the guys behind them. Pierre is the only real burner, and he’ll run a lot. The rest won’t steal bases, but some can take the extra one. Kind of a dead even push.

Upside:  half the team runs very well

Downside:  half the team doesn’t

Score:  0

Team defense:

Like the speed, it’s going to be a split. But the good defense is in the middle and outfield, where I think it’s the most important. This will help the rotation, as they keep the ball in the field of play, and it will get caught. Shouldn’t be a lot of free outs, and that will help by not putting as much pressure on the offense.

Upside:  a Gold Glove somewhere out there.

Downside:  Dunn has to play the field

Score:  + 1

Team batting:

Should be a big power year, but might not be as many runs. They don’t walk a lot, and they are prone to strike out a lot. Lots of doubles will help, but will singles score them, or will it take the long ball? This is going to be the biggest question for the team. Will they rake, or get hoe’d under?

Upside:  they party like it’s 1977

Downside:  it’s a Bill Melton redux

Score:  + 1

Team pitching:

They will be better than most people think, and more important than the offense. I guess you could say that about any team, but you could also say it the other way around. Good starting pitching, and a good closer. They just have to hope the bullpen can get it down. I think this team will contend, and I think the staff will carry them through the playoffs. But that’s what I said last year.

Upside:  the first four go 200 innings each, and Peavey gets 150

Downside:  the bullpen walks a batter everytime Dunn strikes out

Score:  + 1

Total score:    + 8

The Toronto Blue Jays preview

The unknown team of the East, no one knows what they have, or in many case, who they have. Since last season, they have traded off the veterans stars, acquired a lot of young talent, and still have some mid-range established players. Some thought they could contend, or compete, last year, and now we’re not so sure. There is some power in the line up and they will bash. What the pitching can do remains a mystery, at least for now.

Catcher:

J.P. Arencibia, by the depth chart. Only a handful of major league at bats, he’s shown good power in the minors, so he’ll fit in with this team. Average to below average defense, he’s there for his bat, and not his glove. Jose Molina is also in the mix, and should be the back up. If Arencibia doesn’t hit, or not enough to cover his fielding, Molina, at 35, will get the call. This isn’t the way to contend.

Upside:  Arencibia shows the power in the majors he did in the minors

Downside:  Molina ends up the starter

Score:  - 1

First base:

Adam Lind, starting at his 3^rd position in the last 3 years. He’s got the bat, but needs to have a bounce back year after last season. It was a big drop-off, but I think that was more because he overachieved the year before. He’ll show power, and provide a much needed left handed bat to balance the line up. Not much defense, but this team isn’t going to win Gold Glovers, just Silver Sluggers. If he can be slightly above average, he’ll have a good year.

Upside:  thinks its 2009 again

Downside:  becomes Carlos Pena

Score:  0

Second base:

Aaron Hill. Another guy who needs to bounce back to 2009, he’s showing good power, but really needs to get on base more. 20 more walks would really help. His defense is good, and his range is okay, so he’ll help the right side defense while Lind is holding all of those runners on first. He’s a good player, but more doubles and walks and fewer homeruns would make a big difference with Hill.

Upside:  starts getting on base more often so they don’t hit as many solo homeruns

Downside:  thinks he can be Jose Bautista

Score:   0

Third base:

Jose Bautista. I didn’t see it coming, and neither did you. He’ll be back at third full time, but not for his glove. The middle will really have to help the corners. Anyone who expects him to repeat probably shouldn’t operate heavy machinery. It could happen, but history is really against it. I think its park effect, and better pitch selection, and he should still hit a lot of homeruns, but he doesn’t have to do what he did last year. Just a good solid year will really help.

Upside:  last year wasn’t a fluke

Downside:  a lot younger than Luis Gonzalez when he did this

Score:  + 1

Short stop:

Yuniel Escobar. Easily his worse year last year, and a full year in the American League could make a difference. He’ll get some power back, and he’s shown the ability to get on base, which this team really needs. Bet you didn’t know he was second on the team in OBP last year. His defense is good, so up the middle will really help the pitching, which is what is needed more than anything else. Lots of bashers is good. Some leather is also.

Upside:  gets back to his normal averages

Downside:  the American League eats him up

Score:  0

Left field:

Juan Rivera. As up and down as a player comes, it’s the turn for an up year. He’s a good left fielder, so if he does well, his bat will be a bonus. The Blue Jays have a lot of spare pieces, so they don’t have leave him out there too long. He’s seems too old to start having a breakout year, but he’s the same age (pretty much) as Bautista. I wouldn’t look for the same numbers, but he could hit a ton in that park.

Upside:  has one of his up years

Downside:  has one of his down years

Score:  - 1

Centerfield:

Rajai Davis. He’s shown the ability to get on base, but in limited playing time. The more he plays, the less success he has. No power, but lots of speed. He’ll get a lot of chances to run if he can get on. An excellent corner defender, he isn’t as good in center, but is better than anyone else they have. If he stays at about 120 starts, he’ll be more successful than 150.

Upside:  gets on base and plays good defense

Downside:  full time shows he can’t go the distance

Score:  0

Right field:

Travis Snider. A part timer over three years, he’ll get the chance to mostly start, but probably platoon, if the Blue Jays can find someone to do that. He’s been pretty much average, so extra playing time should help. At 23, he’s still got some time to develop, and he’s not going to hurt the team, especially if he can hit left handers. His defense won’t help, so Rivera and Davis will both have extended areas in the outfield.

Upside:  becomes the player everyone thinks with extended playing time

Downside:  still needs to develop

Score:  - 1

Designated hitter:

Edwin Encarnacion. Moving from third base, this isn’t a bad move, as he really doesn’t have the glove for the field. When he gets regular playing time, he can get on base and will hit some doubles. He’s still adjusting to the American League, so getting back to what he did in the National will be a big help. He could have a break out season like Bautista, but is more likely to have one like Lind or Rivera. That’s not bad, but it’s not good when that would make him the second best player on the team.

Upside:  shows his National League ability in the American League

Downside:  last season is what he’ll do in the American League

Score:  - 1

Backup catcher:

Jose Molina. Unless he becomes the starter, if Arencibia can’t get it done. I’m a Molina fan, and if Jose is starting, the defense will be better. I would see him still getting into a lot of games, but he won’t really hit much. They have to decide on veteran defense over rookie offense, but this club will probably go with the bat.

Upside:  doesn’t have to play a lot, and helps out when he does

Downside:  becomes a starter

Score:  - 1

Backup first baseman:

Pick a name. Anyone else could get playing time. However, this would be a problem because it would cause movement all over the field, and probably to the detriment of the defense. They position wouldn’t necessarily hurt the offense, but they have to hope they really don’t need to move anyone. No for a defensive replacement is also a problem.

Upside:  Lind is able to play all year

Downside:  movement hurts the defense

Score:  - 1

Back-up infielder:

John McDonald. A career utility guy, he’s well suited to the role. He’s got a good glove, and can play all three positions. He won’t have a big bat, but extended playing time won’t hurt the team. He should get some time at third as a defensive replacement, and spell the others on a regular basis.

Upside:  continues to do what he does best

Downside:  starts all year, which means a bigger bat will be out of the line up

Score:  0

Back-up outfielder:

Same thing as first. Anyone who’s available. This won’t necessarily hurt, as they do have guys in the line-up who can do it. No speed to replace Davis, and the defense could take a hit. This probably wouldn’t hurt as much as losing someone on the infield long term, but it would disturb the line up. It’s always better to have one guy to do it.

Upside:  they shouldn’t really need one

Downside:  too much disruption in the line up

Score:  0

Rotation (front 3):

Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, and Brett Cecil. Not as bad as it sounds, these guys are better than a lot of people think. Lots of strike outs and not too many homeruns, considering the park they pitch in. Fewer walks would help, but they’re still young and should get better. The rotation might just surprise, and they’ll get a lot of runs to work with.

Upside:  pitch better than their reputation

Downside:  pitch to their reputation

Score:  + 1

Rotation (back end):

Kyle Drabek and Jesse Litsch. Litsch was good before the injuries, and if he can come back, he’s going to make the rotation pretty good. Drabek has a good reputation, and the hype (he needs to have), but no one knows what he’ll do. He’ll get plenty of chances. If these two are even average, this rotation could be pretty good. I think it will be.

Upside:  Litsch comes back

Downside:  Drabek doesn’t live up to the hype

Score:  0

Bullpen:

Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch, Jason Frasor, Jesse Carlson, and Casey Jannsen. Not bad. They’ll do okay. A lot of closer experience, and some good years last year from the non-closers. They also have someone who can step in to close if needed, without an appreciable drop off. If they can get the job done, and I think they will, the rotation will be that much better.

Upside:  they all continue to pitch at the level they have been

Downside:  not enough innings for them all to stay effective

Score:  + 1

Closer:

Frank Francisco. A good one, if he’s healthy. He should be fine, and should get quite a few leads with the offense and rotation ahead of him. If he can’t get it done, he’s used to setting up, and there are other guys who can fill in. This position is strength for the team, and they shouldn’t have too many blown saves.

Upside:  lots of guys who can step in if needed

Downside:  bad mojo in the bullpen about who gets the ball when

Score:  + 1

Team speed (which includes base running):

Lots of doubles, and not many stolen bases, but Davis should help. They don’t really need to run a lot, or even that well, as they don’t walk or hit singles. They bash and moving runners won’t be the issue. The speed they have will be a bonus, and help in the outfield, which will make a lot of difference for the staff. It won’t hurt the team, but might help.

Upside:  they get to use the speed a lot

Downside:  it becomes a too important part of the offense

Score:  0

Team defense:

Good up the middle, minus catcher, and good in left field. The rest won’t help. It would be better with Molina, but he can’t go full time. The defense will help the staff, which will help the team. They’ll be better than people think. No gold gloves, but not too many lead ones either.

Upside:  the outfield defense gives the rotation a lot of confidence

Downside:  the opposing players hit everything on the line

Score:  + 1

Team batting:

It’s not a great offense. They don’t walk a lot, but they will hit the ball a long way. They’ll go station to station, but they will score a lot of runs. They won’t be as good as other teams in the division, but all things considered, they are going to give the rotation a lot of room to work with. They might set some power records, but have to hope they aren’t empty numbers.

Upside:  lots of repeat band bounce back years.

Downside:  too many solo home runs

Score:  + 1

Team pitching:

This might actually be the strength of the team. They will strike out a lot of guys, pitch effective innings, and keep the team in the game, mostly because they will score a lot of runs. They rotation could end up being as good as the Yankees or the Rays. The bullpen will be deceptively good. The staff will make this team competitive, if not actually letting them compete.

Upside:  the rotation hits their stride and the bullpen maintains their effectiveness

Downside:  not quite ready this year

Score:  + 1

Total score:    + 1

The Tampa Bay Rays preview

How the mighty have fallen. They’ll still be a good team, but I doubt if they contend this year. One player doesn’t make a difference, but three do. The new additions just can’t compete with those they are replacing. That being said, they still have good pitching, can hit the crap out of the ball, and might just make it interesting.

Catcher:

John Jaso, mostly, with Kelly Shoppch getting a lot of time also. Jaso gets on base a little, but has no power, while Shoppch is not there for his bat. Neither is known for their glove, but this is the same tandem that got them to the playoffs last year, so you can’t fault that. Jaso is a second year player and Shoppch is a year older, so any improvement will be good, but not really expected. They don’t have the same offensive team as last year, so any help on offense will be an advantage.

Upside:  performs the same as last year

Downside:  they can’t sustain last year’s performance and no one is available to step in

Score:  0

First base:

Dan Johnson. Johnson actually had slightly better numbers than Pena last year, albeit in a quarter of the plate appearances. At 30, he’s a little old to step up and replace a guy like Perez, and isn’t as good defensively. Playing time will get him homeruns and he’ll walk, but will he be able to do enough of either one? He won’t make any of the fans forget Pena, but he really isn’t that much of a downgrade offensively, and they’ll have to live with his defense. If he hits, he plays. If not, Zobrist takes over.

Upside:  exceeds Pena’s performance last year

Downside:  can’t improve the position and someone else has to play

Score:  - 1

Second base:

Sean Rodriguez. A super sub type who will get his chance again, until someone comes along to push him. He has some speed, but doesn’t get on base often enough to do anything with it, and the power is park related.  An average defender, he is better suited to a utility role, but the Rays don’t have that luxury. They have other super subs like this to replace him, but no one major league ready at this time. If the Rays are contending, they look to make a move here.

Upside:  none really. He’s holding the position as long as he can

Downside:  they can’t find anyone to replace him

Score:  - 2

Third base:

Evan Longoria. The stud of the team and getting better every year. The way things are looking, it’s a good thing he’s signed long term. Seems to get some nagging injury every year, but that might not be a bad thing. As long as they aren’t serious, it gives him a chance to rest. There will be a lot of pressure on him to pick up the slack of the departed, and if the new additions can’t do it, he’s going to walk a lot. He’ll have to be really good defensively this year, as the team has lost a lot. He’ll be good, but will he have to do too much?

Upside:  continues to improve

Downside:  no one else steps up and he doesn’t get to swing the bat

Score:  + 2

Short stop:

Reid Brignac. About the same offensively as Jason Bartlett, but not quite the defender. He’s not going to hurt the defense, which should help out Rodriguez somewhat. He hasn’t shown much yet, and this is his chance to step up and impress everyone. He doesn’t have to be an All Star, or even a star. He just has to be average, and not do anything to hurt the team. As long as he is, he’ll play. The team needs help in other areas, so he should be okay unless he just tanks.

Upside:  does what Bartlett did last year

Downside:  none yet. He should get the entire year, and team success or failure won’t come down to him

Score:  0

Left field:

Johnny Damon. Not a bad pick-up, but he’s not Carl Crawford. And he won’t be able to do what Crawford did, which will be the problem. He’s going to hurt them defensively, unless he takes over at first, which might happen. If he has his normal year (at least for the last 3), he’ll help the team offensively, but that’s the problem. When Damon’s production is a positive, then the offense is not the best around. He’s going to help, and the team has to hope Johnson can hit, so that Damon stays in left, and Manny stays at designated hitter. He’ll hit some more homeruns, and continue to get on base, but his game just isn’t the same anymore.

Upside:  hits well enough to keep Manny out of the field

Downside:  has to move to first because Johnson doesn’t hit

Score:  0

Centerfield:

B.J. Upton. A lot of upside here, even though he’s still hasn’t really hit his stride. He has regressed, and that should be a concern, but this might be what it takes. He has to step up this year, and maybe he’ll react to that. The defense and speed are okay, and I’ll bet on more power. What else he does is anyone’s guess, and he needs to have more plate discipline. This will be his make or break year. If the Rays contend and he’s not hitting, he’s going somewhere for an infielder. If he’s hitting and the Rays aren’t winning, same thing. But I see a bounce back year.

Upside:  finally does what everyone thinks he can

Downside:  continues to regress and the Rays have to make a move, which they really can’t at this stage

Score:  + 1

Right field:

Ben Zobrist. Not what you traditionally think of for a right fielder, but he should be okay. He had a down year, and he needs to get back to what he’s done in the past. Decent power, he’ll get on base and play good defense. Having him start in right keeps him off of second, or out of the utility role he excels in. If one of the infielders falters, he won’t be here long, particularly if Matt Joyce can deliver. A good player, but he seems to be out of position here. The Rays need help.

Upside:  gets to stay here all year because everyone else performs

Downside:  he’s at a different position by mid-May and no one can replace him out there

Score:  + 1

Designated hitter:

Manny Ramirez. Showed he could hit without a high-powered offense while in Los Angeles, but they were better than this. Keeping him here and out of the field is a good move, and maybe he’ll be able to concentrate more on swinging the bat. He’s on the decline, but he’s not done yet. This is a good park for him to hit in, and he should provide some help for Longoria. What they can’t afford is for him to be a head case, and they need to make sure his locker is as far away from Upton as possible. He needs to have a good year for the Rays to be competitive, and he doesn’t, he’ll become a problem.

Upside:  decides he likes hitting baseball more than staying at home

Downside:  Manny being Manny

Score:  0

Backup catcher:

Don’t really have one, as both Jaso and Shoppch will get a lot of playing time. If one of them goes down, it will be Jose Lobaton, who probably isn’t the answer, or some sort of roster move. The hope would be that one of these guys, mostly Jaso, steps us and gets 130 starts, leaving the other as a pure backup. That would be the best scenario, but probably won’t happen. An injury or lack of production will really hurt.

Upside:  they do what they did last year.

Downside:  an injury or lack of production makes one of them start too many games

Score:  - 1

Backup first baseman:

Zobrist or Damon, which will be a big problem, as this will put the outfield into flux, and cause Manny to use his glove. This could actually end up being an upgrade at the position, but not worth the cost elsewhere. It would all depend on how well Matt Joyce plays, and when Rocco Baldelli comes back from retirement.

Upside:  Johnson is good enough that one isn’t really needed, beyond a few days off

Downside:  they really end up needing one

Score:  0

Back-up infielder:

Ben Zobrist. Are you starting to see a pattern here? And a problem? If Zobrist is filling this role, who is filling his? Zobrist is suited to do this and be a super sub, but he’s supposed to be a starter. There is no one else on the depth chart, so no one is ready in the infield for the Rays. On the bright side, there are plenty of guys out there who can fill this role, and picking up one of them and leaving Zobrist alone would be a better move. Unless they find a right fielder.

Upside:  everyone stays healthy and hits

Downside:  Zobrist has to become the super sub again

Score:  0

Back-up outfielder:

Matt Joyce. Not a bad choice, as he has some pop and can get a base a little better than average. He can also play all three positions adequately, so he can give them all a rest when needed. If something happens in the infield, he could fill in and do okay. He might actually be a better option in right field, with Zobrist taking over another position. That leaves Desmond Jennings as the fourth outfielder, which would work also. This will actually be strength for the team, amongst a host of weaknesses.

Upside:  doesn’t have to start and gets to do his thing well

Downside:  has to become a starter and doesn’t get it done

Score:  + 1

Rotation (front 3):

David Price, James Shields, and Wade Davis. Minus Price, this rotation was actually below average last year, but I don’t see that happening again. Price is turning into a big time pitcher and Shields had an off year. I expect him to return to form, and Davis has the potential. They’re going to have to be good, because the offense won’t be what it was. More strikeouts are important also, as the defense won’t be quite as good as last year. They have to step up, but they also have the ability to do it. The team’s fortunes ride on how good they are.

Upside:  everyone pitches to his capability

Downside:  Matt Garza was more important than they thought

Score:  + 1

Rotation (back end):

Jeremy Hellickson and Jeff Neiman. Neiman is average and is 27. It’s make or break for him, but he shouldn’t hurt the team unless he has a complete meltdown. Hellickson pitched well at the end of the year and has a lot of upside. As long as these two aren’t required to do more than the team needs from them. They might even surprise and become a strength. They should get the job done, just as the starters will.

Upside:  can just go out and pitch without worrying about too much

Downside:  the team has to rely on them too much

Score:  0

Bullpen:

Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta, Adam Russell, Andy Sonnanstine, and J.P. Howell. This is a train wreck waiting to happen. When Farnsworth is a major piece of the puzzle, you have pitching problems. The bullpen was good last year, and was a big help, but it won’t be this year. The starting pitching will have to step up and pitch well, and a lot. Relying on the pen is not going to get them back in the playoffs. The bullpen might make the bench look even better.

Upside:  the roster moves start before spring training

Downside:  Farnsworth takes over as the closer

Score:  - 2

Closer:

Jake McGee. A converted starter who saved all of one game in the minors, he’s a rookie, left handed, and not a reliever. This one doesn’t make sense, as he could be better used in the rotation when he’s ready. His numbers in the minors were good, but he has no history at this. It doesn’t mean he’ll be bad, he’s just unknown, and for a playoff contender, it’s a strange move. Losing Rafael Soriano is going to hurt.

Upside:  does his best Todd Worrell impression

Downside:  not suited for the role

Score:  - 1

Team speed (which includes base running):

Good speed. Not quite as good as last year, but Damon can still run, when needed. They could have 5 guys with 20+ steals, and they might need it. They’ll be good on the bases also, and will need to be, as the power isn’t there. It will also help in the outfield with turf. They’ll need all they can get.

Upside:  everyone hits well enough that the stolen bases aren’t as important

Downside:  it becomes too important a part of the offense

Score:  + 1

Team defense:

Not going to be as good this year. Average at most positions, and none are really standouts except Longoria. They’re going to have to be good, because the pitching will need all the help it can get. Fewer runs by the offense means less free runs for the opponents is that much more important.

Upside:  there isn’t one. They won’t be bad, but they won’t standout either

Downside:  too much shuffling around the field exposes the weaknesses they have

Score:  0

Team batting:

Going to be a problem. They will be average at best. Older players and unproven ones have to step up to support Longoria, and they’ve lost more power than they replaced. They’ll get on base, but will they be able to move around them without a track meet? They are going to have trouble competing against the Yankees and Red Sox.

Upside:  If they have to make a move for the line-up, it should be for a bat

Downside:  everyone stays healthy and this just enough to stay in the line-up

Score:  0

Team pitching:

Going to have to be good, and will be from the rotation. They won’t get a lot of support, so they can’t give up much. They starters will have to pitch well, and pitch deep. They can’t let the bullpen control games, and with an unknown closer, it will be all that more important. The team’s chances will depend on how little the rotation lets the bullpen pitch.

Upside:  the starters go deep and can put in a lot of innings

Downside:  the bullpen gets into too many close games

Score:  0

Total score:    0