Okay, now for the other side of the equation. Just to
say up front, I know there are many different ways to do this. I don’t care
because this is what I picked. Someone could use Leverage Index or weighted
Leverage Index, or some other number to figure this out, but I didn’t. The
reason is, this is a list that goes back to the beginning of the game. I don’t
like lists that pick arbitrary dates in order to use a specific metric.
I didn’t go back to 1980 to incorporate any
sabermetric principles, and I didn’t go back to 1954 because Retrosheet has
most of the box scores, and I didn’t go back to 1920 when homeruns replaces
deadball. I went all the way back and used numbers that are common to every
player who has ever been in the game. If someone wants to do this differently,
be my guest. Please send the link, as I would like to see, but this is my list,
so I’ll do it my way.
When I say the least likely, or the most likely, I
don’t really know. Maybe least probable or most probable is a better way of
stating it. I don’t really think any player is likely to do any particular
thing in any particular at bat. We know by percentages who has the best chance
to do something, but it’s far from likely anything will ever happen, outside of
an intentional walk, and Johnny Bench can attest to the fact that that isn’t
always true.
The top-10 most likely guys to hit a homerun are
listed below:
10 – Mike Jacobs (66.4) 100 homeruns in 2117 plate appearances
over 6 seasons
In light of recent events, I wonder if I should add a
10-point bonus to players suspended for PED’s? This would push him up the list.
Hit as a pinchhitter, but he was a semi-regular first baseman who topped at 32
one season, and 20 another. Has the third highest total of homeruns of the top
10. Didn’t show the same power in the minors, but hit more as he got closer.
Hit his homerun off of Esteban Loaiza
9 – Tim Wallach (65.6) 260 homeruns in 8908 plate appearances
in 17 seasons
A third baseman for the Expos and Dodgers, he had
mid-range power. Only topped 20 homeruns 5 times, with a high of 28. Didn’t
really play in hitters parks, at least I don’t think Olympic Stadium was a
hitters park. We know Dodgers Stadium isn’t. Ended his career before the
offensive explosion, so I was kind of surprised to see him here, but he does
have the 4th highest total of any player to do this, so volume counts. Member
of the College Baseball Hall of Fame.
Hit his homerun off of Phillip Nastu
8 – Mark Worrell (64.0) 1 homerun in 4 plate appearances in 2
seasons
The only pitcher in the top-10, so I’ll let him stay.
Not really a hitter, he didn’t have a single one in 8 plate appearances in the
minors and just one in the majors. The fewer number of plate appearances puts
him high on the list, but hey, he still hit one, which one more than I ever
did. Pitched in one game before he hit his homerun. If anyone thinks he should
be replaced I don’t mind. But Luke Hughes and Esteban Yan, two pitchers, are
11th and 12th on the list. Still active, so his placement could change.
Hit his homerun off of Tim Redding
7 – Dave
Matranga (60.1) 1 homerun in 6 plate appearances in 2
seasons
A second baseman for the Mets and Angels, he only got
to the plate 7 times in his career. I realize a low number of plate appearances
might skew the numbers somewhat, but I don’t think so. A lower number of plate
appearances means fewer chances to hit more homeruns. Follow me, here? Hit it
as a pinchhitter. Hit 82 homeruns in the minors. This is also his only major
league hit.
Hit his homerun off of Joaquin Benoit
6 – Jermaine Dye (59.9) 325 homeruns in 7214 plate appearances
in 14 seasons
The most career homeruns of any player in the top-10,
and second most among all the players to do it. Topped 20 homeruns 10 times, 30
homeruns four times, and 40 once. The best overall hitter in the top-16, and
one the five best overall. Played in two World Series, winning one of them.
On April 13, 2009, Dye and Paul Konerko hit their 300th homers in the
majors, the first teammates to do so in the same game. They managed the feat in
back-to-back at-bats.
Hit his homerun off of Marcus Moore
5 – Jay Gainer (59.7) 3 homeruns in 45 plate appearances in
1 seasons
A first baseman that couldn’t cut it with the Rockies,
he actually hit his in Cincinnati at old Riverfront Stadium, and not in Coors.
Of course, Coors wasn’t opened until 2 years later. Hit a lot of homeruns in
the minors, topping 30 twice, so he definitely belongs here. One of the
original Rockies, he never got much of a shot. Now managing in the minors. Hit
his homerun on the first pitch he saw.
Hit his homerun off of Tim Pugh
4 – Josh Fields (59.5) 34 homeruns in 796 plate appearances
in 5 seasons
One of only three players still active, although
Fields and Jacobs are in the minors. Has the best chance of making it back to
the bigs. Hit 23 in one season, but injuries have kept him from putting
together a full season. Good power in the minors, he definitely belongs on the
list. Hit his as a pinchhitter. I think eventually he’ll make it back and move
down on the list.
Hit his homerun off of Jamie Walker
3 – J.P.
Arencibia (49.5) 6 homeruns in 686 plate appearances in
2 seasons
The only player still in the majors, he probably won’t
stay on this list very long. A catcher who isn’t known for his hitting, he had
a ton of power in the minors, topping 20 twice and 30 once. He hit two homeruns
in this first game. Opening day of 2011, he hit two homeruns and a triple, so
debuts are right up his alley.
Hit his homerun off of James Shields
.
2 – Mitch
Lyden (47.6) 1 homeruns in 10 plate appearances in
1 seasons
A catcher for the original Marlins, this was his only
homerun in the majors. One of only three players in the top-10 to only hit one
homerun in their career. Hit over 200 homeruns in the minors. Spent 10 years in
the minors before he got a chance at the majors.
Hit his homerun off of Jose Bautista
1 – Charlton Jimerson
(46.3) 2 homeruns in 9 plate appearances in 4
seasons
A right fielder for the Mariners and Astros, he hit
his first one as a pinchhitter. He did appear in one game as a defensive
replacement the previous year without batting, but was able to avoid the
Moonlight Graham syndrome. Hit double figures in homeruns for 9 straight years
in the m minors, but never got a long look in the majors. Played in the minors
last year, but no info about this year. It’s not out of the question that he
could come back up and increase his lead, or drop out entirely.
Hit his homerun off of Cole Hamels
So that’s the list of the 10 most likely players to
hit a homerun in their first plate appearance. One pitcher, but he counts.
Jimerson could legitimately be considered not eligible for the list since he
got into a game before he actually hit, but several pitchers did that also, so
he stays.
Update: somehow I missed a player. I didn't
realize this until I was going back through, so I want to add him on now, as
most people will know him.
4 - Will Clark (49.6)
284 homeruns in 8283 plate appearances in 15 seasons
We all know about Will the Thrill, so I’m not going to
add on to it.
Hit his homerun off of Nolan Ryan
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