Trying to bring a little common sense to the game of baseball. But considering many of the people who read baseball blogs, I'm probably just pissing into the wind.

Tuesday, June 2, 2020

Finishing up the brackets


Okay, so here we go with the other side of the bracket:

1988 Royals vs 2016 Royals                                 1988 has home field advantage

2008 Royals vs 2004 Royals                                 2008

2002 Royals vs 2000 Royals                                 2000

2019 Royals vs 2010 Royals                                  2010

1973 Royals vs 1992 Royals                                 1973


And now for the last bracket:

1986 Royals vs 2007 Royals                                  1986

1989 Royals vs 1983 Royals                                  1989

1987 Royals vs 1972 Royals                                  1987

2017 Royals vs 1993 Royals                                  1993

2006 Royals vs 2011 Royals                                  2011





Okay, so it wasn't as much random as I would have liked. But that's pretty much the definition of randomness. And I could have made sure all of the teams over .500  played another team without a winning record, but that has pretty much happened anyhow.

So next will be a list of all the brackets so far, and then on to the teams with a bye.

The rest of the match-ups

The first bracket:



1995 Royals vs 1991 Royals                                   1991 has home field advantage


 1990 Royals vs 1998 Royals                                   1990 has home field advantage


 1975 Royals vs 2012 Royals                                    1975 has home field advantage

                            I didn't even have to look up the records. This might be a sweep.

  
1996 Royals vs 2005 Royals                                    1996

  
2013 Royals vs 1999 Royals                                     2013




  
Onto the second bracket:

  
1979 Royals vs 2001 Royals                                     1979

                             This might be a laugher

  
1970 Royals vs 1997 Royals                                      1997

                              Even with the DH, this is very close. Could be an upset.
  

2009 Royals vs 2018 Royals                                     2009

                              How were the 2009 Royals better than anyone?

  
1982 Royals vs 1974 Royals                                     1982

                             Brett's first season


  

Yes, there are an uneven amount of match-ups in the brackets, but that is the nature of brackets.This will be evened out with the bye teams. The first bracket will add three byes, will the second one will add 4 bye teams.



So what are your predictions so far?



And on to the other side of the bracket.

The teams with a first round bye


So, to get this started. These are the teams I've selected for the 1st round byes. Generally they are among the better teams the Royals have had. I would have like to have done a straight  match-up tournament with no byes, but that doesn't really work.

So here we go, in no particular order:

1)    1985 Royals       World Series winner

2)    2015 Royals       World Series winner

3)    1980 Royals       World Series loser

4)    2014 Royals       World Series loser

5)    1976 Royals       Division winner

6)    1977 Royals       Division winner

7)    1978 Royals       Division winner

8)    1984 Royals       Division winner

9)    1994 Royals       The strike screwed them

10)   2003 Royals      (how did they have a winning record among all that suckiness)

11)   1971 Royals      The first winning season

12)   1981 Royals      They weren't really a play-off team, but I  needed one more team.

13)   1969 Royals      Where it all started

So a 1st round bye to each of these teams, leaving 38 more teams to fill out the bracket.

The rules

Okay, the rules/procedures;

I'm running this:

All comments are welcome, even if they are wrong

Anyone can act as manager/GM of a team during the second round, and any subsequent rounds. Hell, I'll even let you pick a team in the first round if you think you can make it through. This means that  you pick the starters and line-up before each game, and can choose substitutions. Details of how this will work to follow.

We will, as a sign of the apocalypse, use the Designated Hitter. Sadly, it only makes sense as 47 of the 51 teams used it. If two of the pre-DH teams play each other, it will be without the DH. As is only right and pure in this world.

This will be a 51-team bracket, as they Royals have completed 51 seasons.


There will be 13 teams selected to have a 1st round bye. I will choose them.

The other teams will be assigned to the brackets, top down, by a random number generator.

The teams given a first round bye will be assigned to a bracket by a random number generator.

There will be no rankings.

There will be no adjusting the brackets later.

Each set of teams will play a 9-game series.

3 home, 4 away, 2 home.

The team with the better record will be the home team.

The roster used will be the end-of-season roster for that year, which would have been the playoff roster, if they had/did make it. It will be a 25-man roster, and there will be a 40-man roster for injuries.

I haven't quite figured out all of the details yet, but if I am able, the visiting team will have Municipal Stadium as their home stadium.

Injures will be enabled.

Any team not having a human manager will utilize the computer manager, so you are managing against the AI, not me. This way  you have a chance.

I will try to do one series every day, and probably more on the weekends, up to the point where the bars are open again. Then we'll see.

After every series, I will post the results, the statistics, an updated bracket, and depending on time, a summary or re-cap.

That's all for now.

The greatest tournament of all time

I'm not sitting at home all day with nothing to do. I'm still working every day, and putting in as many hours as I did before all this started. But I am sitting home in the evenings and on the weekends, as there really isn't much to do at all. The house is clean, the car is clean, the yard work is done. Even if it wasn't, it's raining, and I don't feel the need to get wet.

As I sit around most evenings and weekends, I get bored, so I play a lot of baseball on Out Of The Park. One of the best simulation games around. I always play the Royals, of course, and have won the last 4 World Series, and I'm only in the 1980 season.

No, it's not fantasy baseball, but it's much better.

I've just upgraded to the 2020 Season, and it's well worth it. It has a lot of different features from when I started 10 years ago, and it's much better.


One of the features it has it that it allows you to run tournaments. You can do teams from any era, any team, any year, and so and so forth. And it lets you run historical leagues, or make up you own. So since I'm sitting here without a lot to do, I thought I might try out a tournament.

This, of course, will be a tournament to figure out which is the greatest team in Kansas City Royal history.  We all think we know, but due to the differences in era's, and type of game played, ball used, stadium, to juice or not to  juice, a team from one year that was great might not have been as good in a different year.

Which team is better? The 1985 team that won the World Series? Or the 2015 that won it all? Is the 1980 runner-up better than the 2014 runner-up? We don't know. But we are going to find out. Because I'm going to run the tournament and we'll see how it goes.

As always when I am doing this, I don't expect a lot of views or comments, but if  you do take a look, don't forget to tell me how I'm getting it all wrong and you know better. I, of course, will respond with kindness and humility, because I will know most of you personally.

If anyone wants to guest manage, that would be great. I will be posting the rules and brackets shortly, but those who respond will get their choice of team, in the order of response. 

Even if you aren't a Royals fan, I would have to question why. But you will be forgiven.

Monday, August 29, 2011

Jim Joyce made the right call and it's time for everyone to get over it

Yeah, I said it and I don’t care who agrees or disagrees. It’s the truth, and that’s the way it is. The biggest issue here isn’t even the call. Players, managers, and fans always have, and always will, argue any call that they feel they were wronged on. The problem here is the issue of perfection.

The issue was that the call would have been the last out of a perfect game, and that’s why everyone is upset. If the call had come in the third inning, people would have complained, but it would be a dead issue and over with. If it happened to ruin a no-hitter, there would have been complaints and arguments, but nothing more than normal day-to-day arguing about baseball. If it had ruined a shutout, it would be forgotten about today.

The issue is that it would have been a perfect game, and the call ‘ruined’ that. Because giving a pitcher a perfect game is much more important than actually having an umpire get the call right.

There were many commentaries and comments that the commissioner (I used lower case on purpose there) should have overturned the call, and “given” the perfect game to Galaraga. How’s that? Give it to him? That’s right? I don’t think so, not by a long shot. You don’t give ‘anything’ in baseball just because someone thinks it should be that way. If that’s true, the ’85 Cardinals get to be World Series champs, the ’91 Braves won their Series, and the ’69 Mets have to concede to the Orioles. Roger Maris has to give back his MVP trophy and 61 homeruns because it should have gone to Mantle instead.

Stupid, stupider and stupidest. We live in reality, not in what we want reality to be. There are no do-over’s in baseball, or in life. You get a second chance, but not a do-over. Just doesn’t work. Galaraga doesn’t deserve the perfect game because he didn’t pitch one.

We are, however, dealing with just my opinion right now, and even I don’t believe my opinion alone is strong enough to carry the day. So, as they say, let’s go to the video.


Let’s start with the basics. Jim Joyce was in the perfect position. He was exactly where he was supposed to be. He started the play in perfect position, he moved into the perfect position after the ball was hit, and he was in the perfect position to make the call. He was looking straight on at the bag, the runner, and Galaraga’s glove. No complaints about that one.

Second point everyone seems to forget. That was not a routine play. It was hit into the hole between first and second, and Cabrera had to go a long way to field it, and Galaraga had to get to the bag to make the play. This was not an easy tapper back to the mound or an infield pop-up. This was a difficult play and assuming the out just because it was a groundball is asinine.

Thirdly, Miguel Cabrera, who was one of the most vocal about the call, caused the call as much as anyone else. Cabrera should never have fielded that ball. He’s not a good defensive first baseman to start with, and he proved it. He was moving away from the bag, had to stop his momentum, turn, and try to hit Galaraga on the run. Granted, he made a good play on it, and the runner “could” have been out. Cabrera would have been better off letting the ball go through to the second baseman, who was moving towards the bag and had a better throw to make.

Now, those second and third points are not faults, and did not cause Galaraga to lose the perfect game. They contributed to what happened and different outcomes to either one of those could have definitively decided the issue one way or the other, without leaving us such a close play to call. I’m not blaming Cabrera. He made the play, and it was a good one, but it wasn’t good enough. Because his throw came from a different angle, and the angle of that throw, more than anything, enabled the batter to be safe.

Last point before we get to the heart of the matter. Jim Joyce and his call. Watch the video at the .10 second mark. Look at Joyce’s right hand. It appears to me that he starts to make a fist to call the out, and then immediately goes into the spread to make the safe call. Something happened to make Joyce go from the out call to the safe call immediately, and there was no hesitation. He was in perfect position to make the call, started to make what would have been a right call, and then went with what was the right call. Look again at the .33 second mark, and see what you think.

Now, the reason Joyce went from making a possible out call to a correct safe call? Easy. Galaraga never caught the ball until after the runner passed the bag. The ball hit his glove, but he did not make a clean catch and the runner was safe. Joyce started to call the runner out when he though Galaraga caught the ball, and then called him safe when he saw that he had not caught it cleanly. There is no fault here on Joyce for missing the call, because he didn’t. There is fault here to Galaraga for not making the play.

Start watching the video at the .09 second mark. After it appears that Galaraga has caught the ball, and after the runner has crossed the back, he jerks his left elbow up and bends his wrist into his body. Watch it again. Watch it again starting at the .33 second mark. You’ll see it ever more clearly. If you’ve ever played baseball, you know exactly why he did that.

For the most definitive look, start watching at the 1.26 mark. When his foot is on the bag and it appears he has caught the ball, he hasn’t. You can clearly see the entire ball (well, half of the ball, just like the moon) in the glove. That is not a catch. Just because the ball is hidden by the glove does make a catch. The ball has to be secured in the glove, not hidden from view from everyone but the umpire. That’s the point where Joyce starts to make a fist, because he’s assuming the ball will be secured in the glove.

But it isn’t. You can clearly see the ball loose in the glove, and Galaraga hitches his arm up and turns the glove into his body to snatch the ball and secure it. Again, if you’ve ever played baseball, you know exactly what I’m talking about. By the time he secures the ball, the runner has passed the base and is safe. Which is what Joyce called him, and it was an excellent call. And exactly the right call.

I’m going to make a guess here, and I’ll be honest it’s only that, but it sure looked to me as though Galaraga was doing his best to sell that call, knowing full well he didn’t catch the ball cleanly. Not that I blame him, I would have done the same. What I do blame Galaraga for is knowing he didn’t catch the ball cleanly, yet letting his teammates and manager continue to argue the call after the fact. It was completely unnecessary and uncalled for.

By the way, kudos to Jim Leyland for being a complete dick, as he usually is, after the game, and screaming at the umpires. Hey, Jim, you won the game. Isn’t that the point?

I know that after the game, Jim Joyce came out and said he blew the call. I don’t believe it. Mostly because MLB doesn’t allow it’s umpires to comment on issues like this and any controversy in the games, so the fact that he did it here is somewhat suspicious. I guessing again, but I’m putting it down to the heat of the moment. When you have 30,000 fans and a team screaming for your head, and the call’s been replayed several hundred thousand times, the stress can get to anyone. Most people want to automatically believe he screwed up the call, so that’s what they’ll do. No matter what he said at the time, no one was going to buy it.

Joyce was fighting a lost cause, but I don’t believe for a minute that he thinks he blew the call. He made it immediately and clearly, no hesitation at all. He did everything right. The only problem is that it wasn’t what everyone else wanted.

It would have been great if Galaraga had thrown a perfect game. I’m all for that. The fact is, he didn’t, and he has no one to blame but himself for not catching the ball correctly.

If you really want to be made at someone, be made at the official scorekeeper for giving Jason McDonald a hit on the play. Even though Galaraga and the throw beat the runner to the bag, the fact that he was called safe should have been evidence that it was an error and not a hit. Galaraga doesn’t have, and doesn’t deserve, a perfect game.

But he did lose out on a no-hitter. Don’t blame Jim Joyce for that one.


Wednesday, August 24, 2011

More things than you ever wanted to know about things you don't know about

Having now completed the last two lists, I thought you didn’t have quite enough information on this subject. So here is more than you ever wanted to know about batters hitting a homerun in their first major league plate appearance.

First, a quiz. Only one pitcher has given a homerun to a batter in their first plate appearance more than once. He was a knuckleballer in the 70’s. Please make your guess and leave it in the comments. The winner will receive nothing but satisfaction from the fact that they probably know more baseball trivia than a sane person should.


Only 2 Hall of Famers have done this, and one was a pitcher. They are Hoyt Wilhelm and Earl Averill. I’m surprised that only one Hall of Fame batter has done this.


Of the 106 players to do this, 18 have been pitchers.


2 of the 4 pitchers to do it since the Kevin Graham Rule was instituted have been American League pitchers.


2 have been inside the park. Luke Stuart in 1921 and Johnnie LeMaster in 1975. One from each league.


25 have hit it on the first pitch they saw


44 have been hit in the American League and 62 in the National League


21 hit their only career homerun in their first at bat


26 have hit it as a pinchhitter


4 have hit a grand slam for their first homerun


10 did in the top of the 1st inning, before they even had a chance to play defense (call this the anti-Moonlight Graham syndrome)


The following clubs have done it the most:
Boston Red Sox – 4
Brooklyn Dodgers – 4
Chicago Cubs – 8 (that’s Wrigley, folks)
Detroit Tigers – 6
Houston Astros – 4
Minnesota Twins – 5 (only 1 in the Metro Dome)
Montreal Expos – 4
New York Giants – 4
Philadelphia Phillies – 5
St Louis Cardinals – 7


The only franchise not to have a player do is the Milwaukee Brewers

1890’s – 2
1900’s – 1
1910’s – none
1920’s – 4
1930’s – 7
1940’s – 10
1950’s – 7
1960’s – 12
1970’s – 10
1980’s – 10
1990’s – 13
2000’s – 31


52 (less than half) hit double figures in career homeruns


16 hit 100 or more homeruns


8 hit over 200 (Earl Averill, Bill White, Will Clark and Tim Wallach in the 200’s)


3 ht over 300 (Jermaine Dye, Carlos Lee, and Garry Gaetti)


Gary Gaetti hit the most with 360


By position:
C - 13
1B – 12
2B – 8
3B – 7
SS – 8
LF – 11
CF – 3
RF – 5
P – 18
Utility – 21


Took 21 years for the American League to do it. Only 20 for the National League.


The first time it was done more than once in a season was 1937, when two players from the Philadelphia Athletics did it.


The National League followed with two the next year, with one of them playing for the Phillies


They did it on the same day.


The American League only had 1 player do it during the war years, the National had 4.


The longest streak for the National League is six years in a row. The American’s streak is 5.


The longest gap for the American League was 11 years. For the National League, it was 13.


Ed Sanicki did on September 14th, 1949. Ted Tappe was the next to do it, exactly a year later.


The American League did it 3 times in 2006 and 2010, the most ever.


Some of the notable names that did it:
Bob Nieman
Gates Brown
Bert Campaneris
Gary Gaetti
Jay Bell
Carlos Lee
Marcus Thames
Miguel Olivo
Mike Napoli
Elijah Dukes
Whitey Lockman
Hoyt Wilhelm
Chuck Tanner
Wally Moon
Bill White
Benny Ayala
Johnny LeMaster
Tim Wallach
Will Clark
Jose Offerman
Jermaine Dye
Kaz Matsui
Jason Heyward
Starlin Castro



3 players, Bob Neiman, J.P. Arencibia, and Bert Campaneris homered twice in their first game. Neiman did it consecutively. Keith McDonald did it consecutively over 2 days.


8 Hall of Famers have given up a first plate appearance homerun:

Walter Johnson
Nolan Ryan
Warren Spahn
Bert Blyleven
Randy Johnson (I’m jumping the gun)
Don Sutton
Grover Cleveland
Catfish Hunter


Other pitchers of note:

Bret Saberhagen
Jim Bouton
Van Lingo Mungo (love the name)
Mickey Lolich
Andy Pettitte
Justin Verlander
Dennis Martinez
Tom Candiotti
Jack Morris
Lindy McDaniel
Diego Segui
Monte Stratton
Jim Katt


Prime-time matchups:

Will Clark vs Nolan Ryan
Bert Campaneris vs Jim Kaat
Jay Bell vs Bert Blyleven
Jason Heyward vs Carlos Zambrano
Carlos Lee vs Tom Candiotti
Marcus Thames vs Randy Johnson
Jose Offerman vs Dennis Martinez
Terry Steinbach vs Greg Swindell
Charlie Hough vs Gary Gaetti
Brad Fulmer vs Bret Saberhagen


Hoyt Wilhelm hit one homerun in his career. He hit off of Dick Hoover, who only gave up one homerun in his career.


Monday, August 22, 2011

Top 10 most likely to hit a homerun in their first plate appearance

Okay, now for the other side of the equation. Just to say up front, I know there are many different ways to do this. I don’t care because this is what I picked. Someone could use Leverage Index or weighted Leverage Index, or some other number to figure this out, but I didn’t. The reason is, this is a list that goes back to the beginning of the game. I don’t like lists that pick arbitrary dates in order to use a specific metric.

I didn’t go back to 1980 to incorporate any sabermetric principles, and I didn’t go back to 1954 because Retrosheet has most of the box scores, and I didn’t go back to 1920 when homeruns replaces deadball. I went all the way back and used numbers that are common to every player who has ever been in the game. If someone wants to do this differently, be my guest. Please send the link, as I would like to see, but this is my list, so I’ll do it my way.

When I say the least likely, or the most likely, I don’t really know. Maybe least probable or most probable is a better way of stating it. I don’t really think any player is likely to do any particular thing in any particular at bat. We know by percentages who has the best chance to do something, but it’s far from likely anything will ever happen, outside of an intentional walk, and Johnny Bench can attest to the fact that that isn’t always true.

The top-10 most likely guys to hit a homerun are listed below:


10 – Mike Jacobs (66.4)                      100 homeruns in 2117 plate appearances over 6 seasons

In light of recent events, I wonder if I should add a 10-point bonus to players suspended for PED’s? This would push him up the list. Hit as a pinchhitter, but he was a semi-regular first baseman who topped at 32 one season, and 20 another. Has the third highest total of homeruns of the top 10. Didn’t show the same power in the minors, but hit more as he got closer.

Hit his homerun off of Esteban Loaiza


9 – Tim Wallach (65.6)                       260 homeruns in 8908 plate appearances in 17 seasons

A third baseman for the Expos and Dodgers, he had mid-range power. Only topped 20 homeruns 5 times, with a high of 28. Didn’t really play in hitters parks, at least I don’t think Olympic Stadium was a hitters park. We know Dodgers Stadium isn’t. Ended his career before the offensive explosion, so I was kind of surprised to see him here, but he does have the 4th highest total of any player to do this, so volume counts. Member of the College Baseball Hall of Fame.

Hit his homerun off of Phillip Nastu



8 – Mark Worrell (64.0)                     1 homerun in 4 plate appearances in 2 seasons

The only pitcher in the top-10, so I’ll let him stay. Not really a hitter, he didn’t have a single one in 8 plate appearances in the minors and just one in the majors. The fewer number of plate appearances puts him high on the list, but hey, he still hit one, which one more than I ever did. Pitched in one game before he hit his homerun. If anyone thinks he should be replaced I don’t mind. But Luke Hughes and Esteban Yan, two pitchers, are 11th and 12th on the list. Still active, so his placement could change.

Hit his homerun off of Tim Redding


7 – Dave Matranga (60.1)                  1 homerun in 6 plate appearances in 2 seasons

A second baseman for the Mets and Angels, he only got to the plate 7 times in his career. I realize a low number of plate appearances might skew the numbers somewhat, but I don’t think so. A lower number of plate appearances means fewer chances to hit more homeruns. Follow me, here? Hit it as a pinchhitter. Hit 82 homeruns in the minors. This is also his only major league hit.

Hit his homerun off of Joaquin Benoit 


6 – Jermaine Dye (59.9)                     325 homeruns in 7214 plate appearances in 14 seasons

The most career homeruns of any player in the top-10, and second most among all the players to do it. Topped 20 homeruns 10 times, 30 homeruns four times, and 40 once. The best overall hitter in the top-16, and one the five best overall. Played in two World Series, winning one of them. On April 132009, Dye and Paul Konerko hit their 300th homers in the majors, the first teammates to do so in the same game. They managed the feat in back-to-back at-bats.

Hit his homerun off of Marcus Moore


5 – Jay Gainer (59.7)                           3 homeruns in 45 plate appearances in 1 seasons

A first baseman that couldn’t cut it with the Rockies, he actually hit his in Cincinnati at old Riverfront Stadium, and not in Coors. Of course, Coors wasn’t opened until 2 years later. Hit a lot of homeruns in the minors, topping 30 twice, so he definitely belongs here. One of the original Rockies, he never got much of a shot. Now managing in the minors. Hit his homerun on the first pitch he saw.

Hit his homerun off of Tim Pugh


4 – Josh Fields (59.5)                           34 homeruns in 796 plate appearances in 5 seasons

One of only three players still active, although Fields and Jacobs are in the minors. Has the best chance of making it back to the bigs. Hit 23 in one season, but injuries have kept him from putting together a full season. Good power in the minors, he definitely belongs on the list. Hit his as a pinchhitter. I think eventually he’ll make it back and move down on the list.

Hit his homerun off of Jamie Walker


3 – J.P. Arencibia (49.5)                      6 homeruns in 686 plate appearances in 2 seasons

The only player still in the majors, he probably won’t stay on this list very long. A catcher who isn’t known for his hitting, he had a ton of power in the minors, topping 20 twice and 30 once. He hit two homeruns in this first game. Opening day of 2011, he hit two homeruns and a triple, so debuts are right up his alley.

 Hit his homerun off of James Shields
.


2 – Mitch Lyden (47.6)                        1 homeruns in 10 plate appearances in 1 seasons

A catcher for the original Marlins, this was his only homerun in the majors. One of only three players in the top-10 to only hit one homerun in their career. Hit over 200 homeruns in the minors. Spent 10 years in the minors before he got a chance at the majors.

Hit his homerun off of Jose Bautista


1 – Charlton Jimerson (46.3)              2 homeruns in 9 plate appearances in 4 seasons

A right fielder for the Mariners and Astros, he hit his first one as a pinchhitter. He did appear in one game as a defensive replacement the previous year without batting, but was able to avoid the Moonlight Graham syndrome. Hit double figures in homeruns for 9 straight years in the m minors, but never got a long look in the majors. Played in the minors last year, but no info about this year. It’s not out of the question that he could come back up and increase his lead, or drop out entirely.

Hit his homerun off of Cole Hamels



So that’s the list of the 10 most likely players to hit a homerun in their first plate appearance. One pitcher, but he counts. Jimerson could legitimately be considered not eligible for the list since he got into a game before he actually hit, but several pitchers did that also, so he stays.





Update:  somehow I missed a player. I didn't realize this until I was going back through, so I want to add him on now, as most people will know him.

4 - Will Clark (49.6)                                    284 homeruns in 8283 plate appearances in 15 seasons

We all know about Will the Thrill, so I’m not going to add on to it.

Hit his homerun off of Nolan Ryan


Wednesday, August 17, 2011

The top-10 least likely guys to hit a homerun in their first major league plate appearance

Back in April, I was watching a Pirates games and Josh Rodriguez, a Rule-5 draftee, came to the plate for his first major league plate appearance. This is how slow I am at writing things up at times. Anyhow, I started thinking about first at bats and was thinking it would be great if he hit a homerun, joining a semi-exclusive club. He didn’t hit a homerun in his first plate appearance, but it isn’t that surprising. Of the over 17,000 players to appear in a game, only 106 have done it, leaving it an astronomical .00062 chance of doing it. Failure, at this particular task, is an option.

For some strange reason, because that’s how my mind works, I started thinking about this particular event and just wondering how unlikely it really it is. Then I started thinking about who was the most likely of all the players who have done to homer in their first plate appearance. Along with that, I wondered about who was the least likely to have done it. Then I wondered what happened to my life and why I’m writing about something like this.

So I devised a simple little formula to figure all of this out. It’s so easy it can be done at home. If for some reason you wanted to. Take a player’s total number of plate appearances and divide by the total number of homerun’s he hit. I’m using plate appearance instead of at bats, because a plate appearance can be any unique event, from a homerun to a sacrifice fly, catcher’s interference, reached on error, or a dozen other plays. The higher the number, the less likely the player was to hit a homer. The lower the number, the more likely.

I didn’t leave it at just that, because even those new-fangled statistics show that pitchers are involved in homeruns. Not much else, but at least that. So I looked at all the pitchers who gave the homerun to see how often they give up dingers. Simply take all of their batters faced and divide by total number of homeruns allowed. The higher the number, the less likely to give up a homer; the lower, the more likely.

So add those two numbers together. Add 10 points if the batter was a pitcher. This is my anti-designated hitter bonus. (We'll call this the Kevin Graham rule). Add 10 points if it was on the 1st pitch. Add another 10 points if it was the only homerun that particular batter hit. 10 more points if it was a pinchhit homerun, because it’s hard enough to do it normally. 10 points if it was a “clutch” homerun (you know, late innings, extra innings, gave the team a lead late in the game, put them ahead, something with a little stress to it), 10 points if it was  grand slam, and 10 points if it was hit in the first inning or led of the game. Add all of those points together, and you get the list.

The top-10 least likely guys to hit a homerun are listed below:


10 - Ace Parker  (211.6)                      2 homeruns in 228 plate appearances over 2 seasons

A utility infielder for the Athletics in the late-30’s. He hit only 33 in 11 minor leagues seasons, only hitting double figures the season after he was done in the majors. Spent time in the minors after the homerun, but ended up finishing the season with the big club, and got a full year in the next year. Still alive at the age of 99. Member of the Pro Football and College Football Halls of Fame. Coached football at Duke University.

Hit his homerun off of Wes Ferrell


9 - Buddy Kerr  (219.1)                       31 homeruns in 4056 plate appearances in 9 seasons


A shortstop for the Giants throughout the war years into the early 50’s, where he finished with the Braves. Hit 5 homeruns in over 1700 plate appearances in the minors. Played a then-record 68 consecutive games without an error. Won 2 league championships as a minor league manager.

Hit his homerun off of Bill Lee (no, not that Bill Lee, the other Bill Lee)



8 - Cuno Barragan  (233.4)                 1 homerun in 190 plate appearances in 3 seasons

A catcher for the Cubs in the early 60’s. Hit 25 homeruns in over 1600 plate appearances in the minors. Even playing in a park like Wrigley, he couldn’t get much power. Didn’t get to the bigs until he was 29, so he was never much of a prospect. This was obviously his only homerun.

Hit his homerun off of Dick LeMay


7 – Daniel Nava (2345.7)                    1 homerun in 188 plate appearances in 1 season

A leftfielder. This only happened in 2010, so Nava could have another shot at the majors. Actually showed homerun ability in the minors, but couldn’t duplicate in the majors, which is surprising considering he played his home games in Fenway. Only the 4th player to hit a grand slam for his first homerun.

Hit his homerun off of Joe Blanton


6 - Dustin Hermanson (241.8)                        2 homeruns in 384 plate appearances in 12 seasons

I almost left Hermanson off of the list, but only because he pitched in 40 games before ever coming to the plate. While he is a pitcher and hadn’t swung a bat, he didn’t really have the stress of doing it in his first game. I’ll leave him, however, as it’s still got to be hard to hit a homerun not matter how you go about it, and this is my anti-designated hitter pick. Didn’t hit one in the minors, but he only got to the plates 10 times. Won a World Series with the White Sox in 2005.

Hit his homerun off of Shane Reynolds


5 – Luke Stuart (254.4)                       1 homerun in 3 plate appearances in 1 season

A second baseman who only had 3 plate appearances in the majors, but hit it off of a Hall of Famer who rarely gave up homeruns. The first one to do this in American League history, taking 20 years to get it done. It was obviously his only homerun. Hit quite a few homeruns in the minors, topping out with a high of 20 in 1923. Stuart might not belong on this list to some people, as he could hit homeruns, but he did it off a pitcher who only game up a homerun every 8 games or so, which accounts for his high score.

Hit his homerun off of Walter Johnson


4 – Gordon Slade (261.1)                    8 homeruns in 1504 plate appearances in 6 seasons

A National League infielder for 3 teams in the 30’s, he has the second most homeruns of any player in the bottom 10. Hit homeruns at about twice the rate in the minors, but not too many. Topped out at 4 homeruns in 1934, which was his only season as a full-time starter, when he finished 15th in the MVP voting.

Hit his homerun off of Bob Smith


3 – Bill Duggleby (331.1)                    6 homeruns in 686 plate appearances in 8 seasons

A pitcher who played in the deadball era, he never played any other position. He hit like modern pitchers, not deadball era ones, so he belongs on the list. Just the second player to do this (there is no box score for the first guy, so I don’t know who he hit it off of); he was the first to hit a grand slam in his first plate appearance. To top it off, it was a pinchhit shot. How’s that for a debut. Hit 3 in the minors, but that was after his debut. There is no data for prior to that. Hit if off of a pitcher who would go on to later fame as an outfielder who hit 53 homeruns in his career.

Hit his homerun off of Cy Seymour.


2 – Walter Mueller (332.1)                2 homeruns in 369 plate appearances in 4 seasons

An outfielder and pinchhitter, he was a Missouri boy who hit his on the first pitch he saw, in the top of the first inning. He barely edged out Bill Duggleby for second place on the list. The highest rated non-pitcher on the list, he had absolutely no power at all. Father of Don Mueller, right fielder with the Giants in the ’54 World Series. He didn’t have much power either, but was a better hitter than his father. Played in Forbes Field in Pittsburgh, which probably accounted for his low total.

Hit his homerun off of Pete Alexander.


1 – Hoyt Wilhelm (539.0)                   1 homerun in 493 plate appearances in 21 seasons

If you know anything about baseball, this shouldn’t be a surprise to you. He did pitch in 4 games previously to getting to the plate, but I will count it regardless. The highest Hall of Famer on the list (the entire list), but the only one to make it as a pitcher. Hit it off a pitcher who didn’t give up many homeruns, which just padded his score, as he would have topped the list without it. Went 21 years without another homerun. Earned a Purple Heart during the Battle of the Bulge.

Hit his homerun off of Dick Hoover


So that’s the list of the 10 most unlikely players to hit a homerun in their first plate appearance. Only 3 pitchers on the list, so I was pleased by that. Looks like you needed to be a middle infielder between the war years to have the best shot to make this list. Next up, the 10 most likely to hit a homerun in their first plate appearance.