Trying to bring a little common sense to the game of baseball. But considering many of the people who read baseball blogs, I'm probably just pissing into the wind.

Thursday, April 14, 2011

Baseball writes the songs that makes the whole world sing

Since I don’t write about the games, the day-to-day stuff, or much of the off-field activities, it’s hard at times to find something to write about. I actually spend a lot of time thinking of different ideas, many of which are rejected right away as not being worth the time, or not really a good idea after all.

So I’m constantly thinking of something to write about, and things just pop in and out of my head while going through everyday activities. For example, the other day, while walking down the street to pick up my laundry, I was kind of singing (in my head, not out loud, although I’ve been known to do that) different songs, or snippets of songs.

Music is great, and baseball is usually on my mind a lot of days, but less now that I don’t have girlfriend at the moment. So I thought, kind of like an epiphany, but not quite, how could I combine the two? Baseball and music, music and baseball. What a combination. So the idea immediately popped into my head about what song fit each baseball team.

I’m pretty sure I’m not the first guy to have this idea, and I’m not trying to rip anyone off, but this is kind of the same thing as power rankings and top-10 lists. I don’t think anyone has copyrighted them, so I’m going to go ahead and do it.

The idea behind this is simple. A lot of it is, what song popped into my head while I was thinking about a certain team. For some, it was pretty easy. With others it took a little bit of time to find one that I thought fit the team. When I say fitting the team, it’s hard to describe. Some of them will be obvious, while others might seem a little mysterious, particularly if you don’t know the song. They just seem to be songs that fit, or in some occasions, the title of a song that fits. But shouldn’t the title of a song be a fair representation of that song?

A note here is that it’s not really about the lyrics of the song, but what the song represents, or the ‘theme’ of the song, for lack of a better explanation.

One thing to remember, this is my list only, and won’t agree with anyone else’s perception. But that’s okay, because you can do your own list. Anyhow, here it is:



New York Yankees --- You’re So Vain

This one was actually pretty easy. It came to me right away. To be fair, this might describe the fans more than the team.


Boston Red Sox --- Money

I think this one fits. A lot of people would pick this for the Yankees, but they already have one.


Baltimore Orioles --- Road To Nowhere

Peter Angelos is doing to baseball in Baltimore what Ty Cobb did to segregation.


Toronto Blue Jays --- In A Big Country

You try finding a song about Canada. I know there might be an obvious choice that I’m overlooking, but it didn’t really fit.


Tampa Bay Rays --- Shooting Star

I actually thought of this before Manny was Manny, but it still fits without him.


Minnesota Twins --- The Great Pretender

This will change once they get to the Series. You get a choice of two here.


Detroit Tigers --- The Lion Sleeps Tonight

If fits. You know it does. Admit it.


Cleveland Indians --- Rock And Roll Heaven

You know, the Hall of Fame? The teams of yesteryear and the glory days? Work with me.


Chicago White Sox --- The Night Chicago Died

Somehow, I just see Al taking batting practice with Ozzie standing by.


Kansas City Royals --- Just My Imagination

This is actually the song I was thinking (singing) about when I got the idea for this. Has it really been 25 years?


Oakland Athletics --- Kung Fu Fighting

Again, one of those that might reflect more on the fans than the team, but isn’t it really the same?


Los Angeles Angles --- One Is The Loneliest Number

You know, one World Series, and no more on the horizon.


Texas Rangers --- Friends In Low Places

Who thought they were going to the Series, and they still don’t get a lot of respect. I think Nolan would approve.


Seattle Mariners --- Man Of Constant Sorrow

I probably don’t need to explain this one.


Philadelphia Phillies --- What A Wonderful World

Yeah, I’m being sarcastic. I don’t care.


Atlanta Braves --- Running Down A Dream

Still chasing it after all these years. They’re there every year, but just can’t quite make it all the way. 


Florida Marlins --- Immigrant Song

I don’t know, it just seems to fit somehow, but this is kind of a fill-in. Again, maybe more about the fans.

New York Mets --- Gypsies, Tramps And Thieves

Yeah, I’m a smartass. This one came to me right away. Mets fans needs to have a sense of humor.


Washington Nationals --- The Cheap Seats

I used to live in DC. I loved it. But there is an inferiority complex about the whole place.


St Louis Cardinals --- Leader Of The Band

Because it’s all about Tony.


Cincinnati Reds --- It’s Yesterday Once More

Trying to get back to the glory years.


Houston Astros --- How Far Is Heaven

For Astros fans, it’s a long, long way away.



My mission in life is to piss off as many Cubs fans as humanly possible. “All that’s been found is debris”


Milwaukee Brewers --- Heartbreaker

Because they just keep teasing their fan base year after year.


Pittsburgh Pirates --- Help!

The team that needs that no explanation.


San Francisco Giants --- Good Year For The Roses

Congratulations to the champions. Two choices here also. Check them both out. You’ll like them.


Los Angeles Dodgers --- Country Boy

Don’t you get the feeling most of those guys would rather be anyplace else?


Colorado Rockies --- Climb Every Mountain

Yeah, I’m stretching here. Help me out. They’re still looking for their trip to the top.


Arizona Diamondbacks --- The Cowboy Rides Away

Because none of them will be staying long


San Diego Padres --- A Little Bit Is Better Than Nada

Yeah, it’s a stretch. They’ve been there twice, which is more than some teams have, so they should be happy about it.


Tuesday, April 12, 2011

These things I know to be true about baseball

A knee-buckling, 12-6 curveball is the single most amazing event in baseball.


Standing at the plate and admiring your own homerun is childish and juvenile. Unless you're the one who hit it.


It's my Hall of Fame, and I can have whomever the hell I want in it. So can you. Why is this even a matter of discussion?


We still admire complete games.


Baseball is a game of tradition, and celebrates its past better than any other sport. Ignoring that will not allow you to enjoy the game in the best possible way.


Everybody, and I mean everybody, without exception, loves the play at the plate.
(as a note, this is not about collisions. This is the slide, the sweep tag, the expectation)


Life isn’t black and white, and there are unwritten rules in every aspect of it, be it dealing with a spouse, a family member, office politics, or trying to talk a police officer out of a speeding ticket. Making fun of ball players for talking about theirs does not make you a better person than them. It just means that you have failed to grasp the basic realities of life, and I’ll bet your relationships reflect that.


For all the talk of homeruns, slugging percentages, and high-powered offenses, nothing will get you to stand up and cheer with a look of awe on your face like a great defensive play.


Any player hitting their first career homerun should be allowed to stand at the plate and admire it, and then celebrate it in any manner they want without repercussion. But only for the first one.


75% of the people who write or comment on the personnel lives of players and mistakes they make do so not as a condemnation of the player's faults, but as an appeasement of their own.


Segregation is the biggest blight on the history of baseball, and nothing will ever make it right. But denigrating the accomplishments of white players who played in the environment they were given does not give the Negro League players the "respect they deserve". They already have it.


Writing about baseball has changed, because it is no longer about the game, the action on the field, or what caused the action to happen. Maybe a few fluff pieces on the players. We don't need that anymore, because now we have mass media that gives us 24-hour access to everything that happens instantaneously. We don't want to read about the game tomorrow when we can see it today. This has caused writing about baseball to move into the periphery of the game, the off the field action, and the players personal lives. Writing about baseball isn't about the game anymore. That's secondary. It's about what surrounds the game. I don't like it, I don't have to like, and you can't make me like it. But I do have to accept it, because the world moves on. But how I yearn to hear one more reference to the “ ‘ol horsehide”.


Third-string catcher on a major league roster is the greatest job in the world.


The ball is round, the bat is a cylinder, and the base paths are a square. Everything else is gravy.


Intangibles do exist, and no, you can’t measure them. The reason you can’t measure them is because they are intangibles, and therefore, immeasurable. Failing to understand this might let you solve for x, but it does mean you don’t understand the intricacies of the game, and how it is affected by them.


Lesser players do not cheapen the Hall of Fame. We over-idolize individuals in a team sport. Even the '27 Yankees and '75 Reds had utility infielders.


A straight steal of third off of the pitcher is sweeeeeeeeeeeet.


If you choose to enjoy the game using traditional statistics such as batting average, errors and pitchers wins, that is your right, and no one has the right to tell you that you're wrong. It's your game as surely as it is anyone else's, and you are free to experience it in whatever manner you decide. Anyone who disagrees is politely invited to go to hell.


Baseball is a game and a sport. Again, baseball is a game and a sport. Repeat, baseball is a game and a sport. Anyone who doesn't understand that baseball is a business and played for money, and no other reason, is living in a fantasy world. Repeat after me: baseball is a game and a sport.


My home park IS so better than your home park.


Winning your fantasy league championship does not give you the qualifications to be a major league general manager.


Pitchers that hit homeruns rock. Pitchers that hit triples are Elvis.


Pinch hit homeruns have the power to stop time.


If you are under the age of 60 and fail to grasp the basic concepts of sabermetrics and why it is important, you are allowed to be corrected at every opportunity. Politely, and without rancor. If you are under 25, you are allowed to mocked and ridiculed.


I'm scared of the wall, and so are you.


You cannot compare players across eras. Please stop. It just cheapens the accomplishments of all of them.


No matter how much in our mind we are the superstar slugger, in reality we are the fourth outfielder.


You would trade everything but your family for one game.


Monday, April 11, 2011

The season predictions


So, finally, after all this, I’m going to get down to my predictions for the year. Yeah, it’s late, but this has taken way more time than I thought it would. Time to get it done and over with and move on to other more important things to write about.

Just in case anyone thinks I’m cheating off of hot starts, or bad starts, or anything else, my picks here are exactly what I put down for the Wezen-ball predictions, which were due at the beginning of the season.

First, just a recap of my rankings:

Yankees                       + 8
Red Sox                        + 8
Blue Jays                      + 1
Rays                              - 1
Orioles                         - 3

Yankees and Red Sox will fight it out and keep it close. The Blue Jays will make a season-long run, and then fade at the end. The Rays will be a .500 team, and the Orioles will be better, but not quite there yet.


White Sox                    + 8
Tigers                            + 7
Twins                            + 6
Indians                         - 3
Royals                           - 5

It will be a three-way race, but the White Sox will win out in the end. The Indians and the Royals will suck.


Rangers                       + 14
Athletics                      + 6
Angels                          + 2
Mariners                     - 12

The Rangers show as the best team in the league, and as the defending champs, they have earned it. The Athletics will be a lot better, the Angles are fading, and the Mariners are the worst team in the majors. But no one needed me to say that.


Phillies                         + 11
Braves                         + 1
Mets                            + 1
Marlins                        - 2
Nationals                     - 9

The Phillies show as the beast of the East, by far. The Nationals are bad, and the others are all grouped together. That’s why this doesn’t really mean much, because I don’t believe this.


Reds                             + 13
Cardinals                    + 8
Brewers                      + 4
Cubs                            - 5
Astros                         - 7
Pirates                        - 8

Reds are the best, the Cardinals will be good, the Brewers will stay close and do their usual fade, and the others are fodder for the teams that win.


Rockies                       + 11
Giants                         + 8
Dodgers                     + 4
Padres                        + 3
Diamondbacks         - 2

The Rockies are better than anyone thinks, the Giants are for real, the Dodgers and Padres are middle of the road, and the Diamondbacks have a long way to go.

So what does that mean? Nothing. Just how I see the teams as a whole, but that doesn’t mean that the better teams will win, just that they are supposed to be better.


So for the actual predictions now:


Boston Red Sox                       93        69
New York Yankees                  90        72
Toronto Blue Jays                    87        75
Tampa Bay Rays                     82        80
Baltimore Orioles                   75        87

Boston’s defense, speed and pitching make the difference.


Chicago White Sox                  90        72
Detroit Tigers                           88        74
Minnesota Twins                    86        75
Cleveland Indians                   63        99
Kansas City Royals                 57        105

White Sox end up being slightly better than the rest.


Texas Rangers                         94        68
Oakland Athletics                   88        74
Los Angeles Angels                86        76
Seattle Mariners                     55        107

Ranges are still the best team in the league. Yup, better than Boston.



Atlanta Braves                        96        66
Philadelphia Phillies              90        72
Florida Marlins                       87        75
Washington Nationals         79        83
New York Mets                      63        99

Phillies age is too much for the Phillies pitching. I know people will laugh at this. I don’t mind.


Cincinnati Reds                      93        69
St Louis Cardinals                 92        70
Milwaukee Brewers            89        73
Houston Astros                    76        86
Chicago Cubs                        70        92
Pittsburgh Pirates               64        98

The Cardinals are going to be better than you think.


Colorado Rockies                89        73
San Diego Padres                86        76
Los Angeles Dodgers         85        77
San Francisco Giants         78        84
Arizona Diamondbacks    59        103

I should have flipped the Giants and Padres, but got it like this for some reason.



The playoffs:

Texas Rangers over New York Yankees

Chicago White Sox over Boston Red Sox



St Louis Cardinals over Atlanta Braves

Cincinnati Reds over Arizona Diamondbacks



The league championships:

Chicago White Sox over Texas Rangers

St Louis Cardinals over Cincinnati Reds


The World Series:

St Louis Cardinals over Chicago White Sox



The awards:

AL MVP:                      Adrian Gonzalez

NL MVP:                      Albert

AL Cy Young:               Felix Hernandez

NL Cy Young:               Matt Cain

AL Rookie:                   Mike Moustakas

NL Rookie:                   Juan Miranda


AL Breakout:               Nick Markakis – this is the guy who’s going
                                        take it up to the next level this year

NL Breakout:               Starlin Castro



That’s it. The good, the bad, the ugly and the impossible.

Thursday, April 7, 2011

The San Francisco Giants preview


The defending World Series champions, but I don’t think they’ll be able to do it again. They’re older again, and the pickups they made just seem to be retreads of what they do every year. Yeah, I know they won, but they aren’t a great team and they aren’t a good team beyond the pitching. That’s always good, but they need some young guys if they want to do this again.


Catcher:

Buster Posey. The Rookie of the Year, and he deserved it. He did a little of everything well. Got on base, but more walks will come. Hit for average and power, and a good amount of doubles. He doesn’t run at all, but he’s not really expected to. His defense is okay, if not spectacular. The big question is how long he will be catching before he moves to first base.

Upside:  Thurman Munson?

Downside:  ends up with Joe Mauer’s knees

Score:  + 1


First base:

Brandon Belt. I wouldn’t have picked him before the season, but since I’m late with this, here he is. He did it all in the minors, and but there is no reason to keep him there. He’s got nothing left to prove. He has good speed and a good eye at the plate. The only issue waiting to be seen is how good his fielding is, but that won’t really be an issue here. He and Posey kind of screw up my ‘retread’ theory, but stick around.

Upside:  back to back Rookie of the Year awards for the Giants

Downside:  still better than any other option they have

Score:  + 1


Second base:

Freddy Sanchez. A former batting champ who always hits for good average but doesn’t walk at all. He doesn’t strike out much, but doesn’t do much but hit singes. He doesn’t hit for extra bases or steal base. His defense is good, so that’s an advantage. As long as he is used correctly, hitting second or eighth, the team will be okay with him out there. He just won’t give much more than that.

Upside:  is on base enough for the others to knock him around

Downside:  stops hitting for average

Score:  0


Third base:

Pablo Sandoval. A switchhitting monster who is going to be a big star, so people should stop bitching about his weight. He had a down year last year, but it doesn’t matter. He hits for average and walks a lot. He doesn’t strike out very much and has good power along with extra base hits. He doesn’t run, but he doesn’t need to. The only knock is his defense, but a position change is out now.

Upside:  does a Chipper Jones impression

Downside:  does a Terry Pendleton impression

Score:  + 1


Short stop:

Miguel Tejada. Still a starter and playing every day, but he shouldn’t be here. He should have went somewhere as a utility play. He’ll hit for some average, but not walk at all. His power is going away, but he should still hit some doubles. He doesn’t run, and never did. His defense isn’t good, but he’ll hit enough, or should, to overcome that and stay in the line-up.

Upside:  no one plays defense so it doesn’t matter

Downside:  stops hitting

Score:  0


Left field:

Pat Burrell. It’s hard to believe he’s starting his 13th season. He’ll do what he has always done. Walk a little bit, strike out a lot, and hit a fair amount of homeruns. He’s in a good park to do that, and with the young players the team has, he just has to contribute, not be a star. His defense was actually good last year, but that was in limited time and I wouldn’t expect it to continue.

Upside:  30 homeruns from the back of the order

Downside:   becomes Rob Deer

Score:   0


Centerfield:

Andres Torres. Finally got a chance to play, and to start, and put up a good year. It will be hard to repeat it, but he has some skill. The on base percentage was okay, but way too many strikeouts. Good speed and good power, and he’ll get around the bases. His defense is excellent, which might be the most important thing, sandwiched between Burrell and Huff.

Upside:  late developer like so many pitchers are

Downside:  he’s not a pitcher

Score:  + 1


Right field:

Aubrey Huff. A great year from him last year, which he does everyone once in awhile, but not every year. Good power and the highest on base percentage of his career. He didn’t strike out too much and even stole seven bases without getting caught. He can also hit for average, and is a very underrated player. He’s actually a good defensive outfielder, and shouldn’t hurt them out there.

Upside:  has to have one more year like he just did

Downside:  has one of his down years

Score:  + 1


Pinch hitter/general utility:

Cody Ross. When he comes off of the disabled list. A starter last year, but he’s going to lose that status because of Belt. He’ll still get plenty of time around the outfield and pinch hitting, and this might suit him better. He doesn’t get on base very well, but does have some power, and will hit doubles. His defense is good on the corners. He strikes out too much and doesn’t run, but will be useful to the team.

Upside:  can fill in for Burrell if needed

Downside:  has to start in right because of problems elsewhere

Score:  0


Backup catcher:

Eli Whiteside. A career guy who doesn’t have to play too often, he has respectable numbers for a career back up, but his defense isn’t up to snuff. As long as Posey is catching, Whiteside won’t get that many opportunities. If they move Posey to another position without getting another catcher first, it would turn out to be a big issue. Lack of work will make him better.

Upside:  only starts 25 games

Downside:  Posey gets hurt

Score:  - 1


Backup first baseman:

Mark DeRosa. A versatile guy who can play all over the field, if not well, at all of them. He’s coming back from injuries that took his year away from and has to hope he can get it back. He has some decent power and no speed to go with it. He gets on base at a decent rate but strikes out too much. He’ll play everywhere and shouldn’t have to start anywhere.

Upside:  comes back from injuries with no problem

Downside:  first option to replace Tejeda

Score:  0


Back-up infielder:

Mike Fontenot. Good defensively at second base, where he’s not needed, but not at short stop, where he is. He could step in and start if needed. He gets on base and has limited power. He doesn’t run at all, but doesn’t strike out too much either. He’ll be all over the infield and fill in for everyone. He’ll be the option when Tejeda stops hitting.

Upside:  might end up hitting better than Tejeda

Downside:  won’t field better than Tejeda

Score:  + 1


Back-up outfielder:

Aaron Rowand. At least as long as he’s on the team, because he seems to be destined to be traded before too long. Not as bad as people think he is, but not as good as the contract. He’s headed to career fourth outfielder territory, and that’s not bad. He has some pop in his bat, and he plays good defense. He can, or could, run, at one time. He’ll replace Burrell a lot for defense.

Upside:  adjusts to his role

Downside:  can’t replace Burrell

Score:  0


Rotation (front 3):

Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathon Sanchez. Not exactly the front three of the Phillies, but it isn’t too far off. This is a good rotation, and they are going to be good. Lots of strikeouts, low hit totals, and Cy Young Awards and considerations. As always, I’d like to see them go a little deeper in the game, but there is no reason to push it. They almost always hand a lead over.

Upside:  the battle for the Cy Young

Downside:  they only give out one a year

Score:  + 2


Rotation (back end):

Madison Baumgarner and Barry Zito. Baumgarner had some of the best numbers on the staff last year in half a season, and Zito was merely average. Two left handers who will give the team three left handers in the rotation. Baumgarner is only 20 and only has to pitch like he did last year and not try to be a star, and Zito just needs to be adequate and eat innings. They’ll do good.

Upside: low expectations for now

Downside:  can’t quite get it done this time around

Score:  + 1


Bullpen:

Jeremy Affeldt, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Ramon Ramirez, and Javier Lopez. A great season from all of them last year, which is what you expect from a World Series bullpen. They’ll get lots of leads to work with, and shouldn’t have to do too much to hand it over to the closer. Lots of strikeouts, but a lot of one inning guys also. I guess I’ve said that about every team, but I’m not giving it up.

Upside: just have to pitch like they did last year

Downside:  they weren’t really that good

Score:  + 1


Closer:

Brian Wilson. When he’s healthy. He’s good and he’s getting better. The strikeout rates are going up, but so are his appearances and innings. He walks too many for a closer, but he doesn’t give a lot of hits or homeruns, so he’ll be okay. He’ll get a lot of leads, if the offense can hit. He’ll lead the league in being a wacko and quotes, as well as saves, so he has that going for him.

Upside:  the injury isn’t really an issue

Downside:  it is

Score:   + 1


Team speed (which includes base running):

Not really good. No one steals bases except Torres, and they don’t hit doubles or triples. Except for Torres, there is no range in the outfield, and absolutely none in the infield. The offense isn’t great, and more speed would be a big help. It won’t matter as much on defense with this pitching staff, so it isn’t a huge problem there. Still, they have a lot of station to station guys, and that includes in the field.

Upside:  anything they can do on the bases will help the offense

Downside:  they won’t do anything

Score:  - 1


Team defense:

Not really. Maybe on the right side, but not enough. Torres can really pick it, and Huff and Sanchez are okay, but neither one of them move well. Tejeda and Burrell are like the statues of angels from Doctor Who, and Sandoval can’t get to anything. The pitchers won’t need a lot of help, and they won’t get it. The biggest thing will be Torres tracking down shots to the triangle.

Upside:  pitching staff says no

Downside:  the pitching staff is only human

Score:  - 1


Team batting:

Average. About as average as it can get. They don’t strike out too much, but they don’t walk either. They don’t steal bases, or run a lot. Everything else is middle of the road on everything. The pitching staff will keep the other teams score down, but they have to get a few on offense to make it competitive. There aren’t any good offensive teams in their division, so they can still compete.

Upside:  Belt and Posey and Sandoval show the old guys how to hit

Downside:  Belt doesn’t hit, Sandoval is too big to, and Posey hits the slump

Score:  - 1


Team pitching:

Finally. Yeah, it’s good. They were in the top four in every category last year, at least the ones I looked at. The only thing they don’t do well in is the fact that they walk too many hitters, but they strike out a lot, don’t give up homeruns, and keep the hits down. It’s a premium staff, the second best in the league, and they are only getting better. If they can pitch like they did last year, they’ll make the playoffs.

Upside:  they’re all young

Downside:  so was Doc Gooden

Score:  + 1



Total score:    + 8

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

The Los Angeles Dodgers preview


The West Coast version of the East Coast bias, with a little bit of Hollywood thrown in. These guys were Showtime before the Lakers starting winning again, and still think they are. No matter what happens with this team, they still can’t get over the Tommy Lasorda experience. My third least favorite team, and I find it hard to say anything good about them ever. And I use to live in Los Angeles.


Catcher:

Rod Barajas. A good catcher with slightly better than back up numbers, because he gets a lot of starts, but never all of them. He has some power and can drive in runs. He doesn’t walk much, but he doesn’t strike out as much as you might think he would. He’s excellent defensively, and that will offset any deficiencies with the bat. This is a rebuilding team, and he’ll be good for them.

Upside:  is able to do something positive with the pitching staff

Downside:  becomes the long term answer

Score:  + 1


First base:

James Looney. He’s kind of a strange one for first base. His numbers are declining every year, even though they are remarkably consistent. He’ll hit for decent average and walk, but not enough of either. Medium power only. He’ll hit a good number of doubles, and he’s started to run a little more. His defense is getting better, but he isn’t the long term answer here. He’s a good piece on a contender, but not here.

Upside:  finds his power stroke

Downside:  keeps declining

Score:  0


Second base:

Jamey Carroll. Had his best season last year as mostly a starter. He hit for average and walked, and had a good on base percentage. He also didn’t hit a single homerun and didn’t have any extra base hits, so to speak. He ran a little more than he usually does, and doesn’t strike out much. His defense is good, and he’ll be a help out in the field, but won’t bring much to the line up unless he can hit at the top of the order.

Upside:  better suited to a utility role

Downside:  will be the starter  

Score:  0


Third base:

Casey Blake. He’ll start the season on the disabled list after having the worst season of his career. He stopped walking and struck out more than he usually does. Medium power with some extra base hits, but no speed. He doesn’t run, and he doesn’t score many runs, which means the bottom of the order isn’t getting him around. He’s good defensively and the infield will good all around.

Upside:  doesn’t stay on the DL too long

Downside:  prolonged injury makes a starter of Uribe

Score:  0


Short stop:

Rafael Furcal. A good short stop when he’s healthy, and that’s always the question. He’s in his 13th season, and I can’t believe it. He’ll get on base, but he doesn’t run anymore. He lost whatever power he had, and doesn’t hit triples or doubles anymore. He’s cut down on his strikeouts, so he doesn’t give away at bats. His defense took a small hit last year, but that’s not necessarily a trend.

Upside:  stays healthy the entire year

Downside:  lives on the disable list

Score:  0


Left field:

Tony Gwynn, Jr. A legacy from another team, he’ll get the start. He hasn’t done a lot so far in his career. He had one year with an above average on base percentage, but nothing else. He can run a little, but not if he doesn’t get on base. He has no power and doesn’t hit for extra bases. His defense is not good, and he doesn’t bring a lot to the club as a starter.

Upside:  won’t really make a difference what he does

Downside:   no one realizes he’s a fourth outfielder

Score:   - 1


Centerfield:

Matt Kemp. Mr Hollywood. Had a down year last season, and has never really hit his stride as the next great center fielder. He has shown the ability to get on base via the walk and hit. Good power and he runs well. His defense is okay, but took a dive last year. He doesn’t hit enough extra base hits, and strikes out way too much. He does play every day, and is the face of the franchise.

Upside:  goes 30 / 30

Downside:  Willie Wilson instead of Willie Davis

Score:  + 1


Right field:

Andre Ethier. Actually the best player on the team. He does a little of everything. He can get on base and hit for average. Good power and lots of extra base hits. He doesn’t run, but doesn’t need to. He doesn’t strike out much either. His big issues are staying healthy and staying in the line-up and his defense. As good as the infield will be defensively, the outfield will be that bad.

Upside:  an average year for him will be an excellent year

Downside:  has to do too much by himself offensively

Score:  + 2


Pinch hitter/general utility:

Aaron Miles. Moving into career back up status. He’s a switch-hitter who can play all over the infield, so that’s good. He’ll hit for average, but not much else. No walks and no speed. No power at all. He doesn’t strike out a lot, so that’s a good thing. He’s good defensively everywhere but short stop, but Uribe would move over there while Miles is at third. A useful piece for a team with full time starters.

Upside:  only starts 10 times or less at each position

Downside:  injuries

Score:  - 1


Backup catcher:

Hector Giminez. A career minor leaguer who has done nothing in very little playing time. His minor league numbers make him a career back up. He has medium power, but strikes out too much without walking enough. He’s a switch-hitter, so that’s always an advantage. His defense behind the plate isn’t good, but he can play a good third base, and might get some time there, if needed.

Upside:  Barajas starts 140 games

Downside:  becomes a platoon

Score:  - 1


Backup first baseman:

Jay Gibbons. Getting his shot at redemption, he’ll do a lot. He’ll back up first and the outfield, and be a primary pinch hitter. He doesn’t get on base that well, but he does hit for average. He doesn’t strike out much, and has had power seasons in the past. His defense isn’t good and he doesn’t run much at all. He’s still a good bat to have on the team and will help.

Upside:  remains a utility player all year

Downside:  ends up starting in left field

Score:   0


Back-up infielder:

Juan Uribe. An average player who will bring some power to the team, but not much else offensively. He’s good for 20+ homeruns, but doesn’t walk and will strike out too much for what he gives. Not too many extra base hits and he doesn’t run. He’s good defensively and can handle all the positions. He’ll move around a lot and end up with over 400 at bats.

Upside:  has a typical year

Downside:  loses his power

Score:  0


Back-up outfielder:

Marcus Thames. Puts up some good numbers in limited playing time, but that is probably best. Doesn’t walk very much and doesn’t run at all. He does have good power and will hit quite a few in Dodgers Stadium. He strikes out too much, and is better suited against lefties. He’ll do a little of everything to include platooning with Gwynn. He’ll do a good Jim Spencer act.

Upside:  Dodgers face a lot of left handers

Downside:  has to play everyday

Score:  0


Rotation (front 3):

Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsly, and Ted Lilly. Three good starters who strike out a lot of batters. They don’t give up a lot of homeruns or hits, but they don’t pitch enough innings either. They all had a complete game shutout last year, which only the Phillies could match. They don’t walk too many guys, and if they should be able to get a lead to the bullpen most day. If they can go that far.

Upside:  more complete games

Downside:  never make it out of the sixth inning

Score:  + 1


Rotation (back end):

Hiroki Kuroda. He’s got the same problem as far as not going deep, but is a good pitcher. He could easily be in the top three. Garland or Padilla will be the fifth guy once they are off the disabled list, but starting the season with an injury doesn’t bode well. If they are both healthy, and Garland has never had problems, this will give them six starters, which is a good problem to have.

Upside: don’t need a fifth starter yet

Downside:  not enough starts for all of them

Score:  + 1


Bullpen:

Hong-Chih Kuo, Kenley Jansen, Matt Guerrier, Ramon Tronsco, and Blake Hawksworth. A good bunch, if unspectacular. They’ll strike out a bunch of hitters, which is good. Most of them can go more than an inning, if needed, and that will be needed, as the starters didn’t go deep at all. They should get some leads to work with, and if they are effective, the team will compete.

Upside: keep striking everyone out

Downside:  too many innings

Score:  0


Closer:

Jonathan Broxton. A good, experienced closer and reliever who had his worst season last year. He still struck out a lot of batters, but all of his numbers were down. He was good instead of being very good. He also walked a career high, so that will be a concern. If the starters can go deep enough for the bullpen to get him a lead, he’ll be okay. If he’s pitching too many innings, it will be a problem.

Upside:  regains his form

Downside:  starting the closer slide

Score:   + 1


Team speed (which includes base running):

None. They can get some steals, but it’s all the infield, and they spread it out. That’s good, but they don’t hit doubles and triples very well. There is good range around the infield, but not a lot in the outfield. The pitching staff is good, but they’ll need more help form the outfield than they are going to be able to give. If everyone is healthy, they’ll pick up more stolen bases, as long as they get on base.

Upside:  speed is there, they just don’t use it

Downside:  lack of power makes it important

Score:  - 1


Team defense:

Good. Especially behind the plate and all around the infield. Uribe and Miles will help out also when they are in there. The outfield defense leaves something to be desired, but you can’t have everything. With all the strikeouts and groundballs, the defense will be good and they shouldn’t give up to many free outs. Balls rolling around the outfield for extra bases will be the big problem.

Upside:  nothing but groundballs

Downside:  lots of power hitters in the National League West

Score:  + 1


Team batting:

The downfall of the team. This team just doesn’t hit. They don’t hit for average, and they don’t have any power. No extra base hits, and no running to go with it. They don’t walk and they strike out too much. The defense and pitching will be good, but they have to score to win. That’s going to be a problem for this team, and I don’t think they can hit enough to contend.

Upside:  pretend it’s the ‘60’s and Koufax and Drysdale are pitching

Downside:  it isn’t

Score:  - 1


Team pitching:

Good, but will it be good enough. Good starters all the way through, but they don’t go enough innings. The bullpen is solid, if not great, with lots of strikeouts, but will have to go too many innings. The closer is good if he’s back from a down year. There is a lot of potential with the staff, but the lack of offense is going to hurt them. They pitch well, but lose close.

Upside:  starters pitch a lot of shutouts

Downside:  offense scores negative runs

Score:  + 1



Total score:    + 4